Journal Article

Integrating Maximum Entropy Production Theory and Machine Learning to Improve Global Evapotranspiration Modeling

Xu, Donghui, Tran, Vinh Ngoc, Feng, Dongyu, Wang, Jingfeng, Leung, L. Ruby, Ivanov, Valeriy, Bisht, Gautam

2026

Overview

Accurate estimation of terrestrial evapotranspiration (ET) is vital for understanding global water and energy cycles. However, current global ET estimations are not well constrained. This study introduces an integrated framework combining the Maximum Entropy Production (MEP) theory with Random Forest (RF) model to improve global ET estimation. Specifically, in contrast to direct ET estimation by the RF model, the integrated framework (MEP‐RF) trains to predict error of MEP‐simulated ET. MEP‐RF outperforms RF in spatiotemporal extrapolation. Attribution analysis with in situ observations reveals that the inputs of MEP are the most critical variables for the ET process, including net radiation, vegetated area, soil moisture, and surface temperature. We further drive MEP‐RF with global reanalysis and satellite data sets of these four inputs, yielding a global mean terrestrial ET of 548 mm/year, with 77% attributed to transpiration. The global ET increased at a rate of 0.85 mm/year per year during 2003–2021, primarily due to vegetation greening rather than rising temperature, while decreasing soil moisture led to decreasing regional ET. The integrated framework provides a novel approach for the estimation of global ET without the need for hard‐to‐obtain and thus uncertain inputs, such as wind speed, surface roughness, aerodynamic and canopy stomatal resistance. Therefore, MEP‐RF offers an independent method on existing global ET products. It represents a promising physically based approach that can be incorporated into Earth System Models to enhance water and energy cycle simulations.

• Publisher: John Wiley & Sons, Inc
• Subject: Aerodynamics / Climate change / Datasets / Deep learning / Entropy / Entropy production / Estimates / Evapotranspiration / Evapotranspiration estimates / Evapotranspiration processes / Heat / Hydrology / Machine learning / Maximum entropy / Methods / Moisture content / Net radiation / Precipitation / Radiation / Radiation balance / Satellite data / Soil moisture / Soil temperature / Stomata / Stream flow / Surface roughness / Surface temperature / Temperature rise / Transpiration / Vegetation / Water / Wind speed