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Stock Price Booms and Expected Capital Gains
by
Marcet, Albert
, Beutel, Johannes
, Adam, Klaus
in
Asset pricing
/ Capital gains
/ Dividends
/ Economic booms
/ Economic expectations
/ Economic growth models
/ Economic models
/ Expectations
/ Investors
/ Mathematical growth
/ Optimism
/ Pessimism
/ Polls & surveys
/ Prices
/ Property
/ Rational expectations
/ Rationality
/ Ratios
/ Return on investment
/ Stock prices
/ Stocks
/ Subjectivity
2017
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Stock Price Booms and Expected Capital Gains
by
Marcet, Albert
, Beutel, Johannes
, Adam, Klaus
in
Asset pricing
/ Capital gains
/ Dividends
/ Economic booms
/ Economic expectations
/ Economic growth models
/ Economic models
/ Expectations
/ Investors
/ Mathematical growth
/ Optimism
/ Pessimism
/ Polls & surveys
/ Prices
/ Property
/ Rational expectations
/ Rationality
/ Ratios
/ Return on investment
/ Stock prices
/ Stocks
/ Subjectivity
2017
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Do you wish to request the book?
Stock Price Booms and Expected Capital Gains
by
Marcet, Albert
, Beutel, Johannes
, Adam, Klaus
in
Asset pricing
/ Capital gains
/ Dividends
/ Economic booms
/ Economic expectations
/ Economic growth models
/ Economic models
/ Expectations
/ Investors
/ Mathematical growth
/ Optimism
/ Pessimism
/ Polls & surveys
/ Prices
/ Property
/ Rational expectations
/ Rationality
/ Ratios
/ Return on investment
/ Stock prices
/ Stocks
/ Subjectivity
2017
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Journal Article
Stock Price Booms and Expected Capital Gains
2017
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Overview
Investors' subjective capital gains expectations are a key element explaining stock price fluctuations. Survey measures of these expectations display excessive optimism (pessimism) at market peaks (troughs). We formally reject the hypothesis that this is compatible with rational expectations. We then incorporate subjective price beliefs with such properties into a standard asset-pricing model with rational agents (internal rationality). The model gives rise to boom-bust cycles that temporarily delink stock prices from fundamentals and quantitatively replicates many asset-pricing moments. In particular, it matches the observed strong positive correlation between the price dividend ratio and survey return expectations, which cannot be matched by rational expectations.
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