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Estimates of volcanic-induced cooling in the Northern Hemisphere over the past 1,500 years
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Estimates of volcanic-induced cooling in the Northern Hemisphere over the past 1,500 years
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Journal Article
Estimates of volcanic-induced cooling in the Northern Hemisphere over the past 1,500 years
2015
Overview
Model and proxy-based estimates of climate cooling from volcanic eruptions have disagreed. Refined simulations and tree-ring time series converge on a total of 0.8 to 1.3 °C of cooling in the Northern Hemisphere from the 1257 and 1815 eruptions.
Explosive volcanism can alter global climate, and hence trigger economic, political and demographic change
1
,
2
. The climatic impact of the largest volcanic events has been assessed in numerous modelling studies and tree-ring-based hemispheric temperature reconstructions
3
,
4
,
5
,
6
. However, volcanic surface cooling derived from climate model simulations is systematically much stronger than the cooling seen in tree-ring-based proxies, suggesting that the proxies underestimate cooling
7
,
8
; and/or the modelled forcing is unrealistically high
9
. Here, we present summer temperature reconstructions for the Northern Hemisphere from tree-ring width and maximum latewood density over the past 1,500 years. We also simulate the climate effects of two large eruptions, in
AD
1257 and 1815, using a climate model that accounts explicitly for self-limiting aerosol microphysical processes
3
,
10
. Our tree-ring reconstructions show greater cooling than reconstructions with lower spatial coverage and based on tree-ring width alone, whereas our simulations show less cooling than previous simulations relying on poorly constrained eruption seasons and excluding nonlinear aerosol microphysics. Our tree-ring reconstructions and climate simulations are in agreement, with a mean Northern Hemisphere extra-tropical summer cooling over land of 0.8 to 1.3 °C for these eruptions. This reconciliation of proxy and model evidence paves the way to improved assessment of the role of both past and future volcanism in climate forcing.
