Journal Article

Assessment of Long-Term Photovoltaic (PV) Power Potential in China Based on High-Quality Solar Radiation and Optimal Tilt Angles of PV Panels

Yang, Shuyue, Jia, Run, Lu, Lingfeng, Zhang, Xiaotong, Zhao, Wenbo, Duan, Yanjun, Yao, Yunjun, Bu, Lingchen, Han, Xinpei

2025

Overview

Solar photovoltaic (PV) plays a crucial role in China’s pursuit of carbon neutrality. Assessing the PV power potential over China is essential for future energy planning and policy making. Surface solar radiation and panel tilt angle are critical factors influencing PV power generation. However, existing solar radiation datasets cannot fully meet assessment needs due to insufficient temporal coverage and limited accuracy, and the impact of panel tilt angles on PV potential is largely overlooked. This study developed a PV power estimation framework to assess the long-term (1980–2019) PV power potential at 609 stations across China, based on reconstructed high-quality solar radiation and optimized tilt angles. The validation of PV power estimates using ground measured outputs from four operational PV power stations indicated a correlation coefficient of 0.67 and a root mean square error of 0.07 for estimated daily capacity factor (CF). The assessment results revealed that the multi-year mean CF of China is 0.149 ± 0.031, with higher potentials in northern provinces and lower in southern provinces. The mean annual CF shows a declining trend of −7 × 10−4 per decade during 1980–2019, with significant decreases primarily in heavily polluted regions. In addition, we propose an optimal tilt angle estimation model based on diffuse fraction, achieving higher accuracy than previously released models. The estimated optimal tilt angle results in an increase in PV energy yield by 14.9 TWh/year for China compared with latitude-based schemes, based on China’s cumulative PV capacity by 2023 (609 GW). Our findings provide valuable insights for the effective implementation of solar PV projects in China.

• Publisher: MDPI AG
• Subject: Accuracy / Aerosols / Alternative energy sources / Analysis / Attitude (inclination) / Capacity factor / Carbon / Climate change / Correlation coefficient / Correlation coefficients / Datasets / Efficiency / Electric power production / Energy resources / Force and energy / Ground stations / long-term solar PV potential / Meteorological data / optimal tilt angle model / Optimization models / Photovoltaic cells / Photovoltaics / Policy and planning / Power plants / PV panel tilt angle / PV power generation / Radiation / Renewable resources / Solar energy / Solar power generation / Solar power plants / Solar radiation / surface solar radiation reconstruction