Journal Article

Adapting to a Foggy Future Along Trans‐Arctic Shipping Routes

Zhao, Jinping, Chen, Changshuo, Tung, Ka‐Kit, Shao, Qiuli, Chen, Xianyao, Li, King‐Fai, Liu, Yilin, Yi, Li, Song, Shutong, Wang, Xiaoyu, Chen, Yue

2023

Overview

Rapid retreat of Arctic sea ice extends the area of open ocean for new trans‐Arctic shipping routes. However, the projected routes may be too optimistic in terms of savings in shipping costs from shortened trans‐Arctic distances as they do not consider the increased sea fog frequency (SFF) over areas of the retreating sea ice. We show that delays due to sea fog can be 1–4 days, about 23%–27% along the Northwest Passage and 4%–11% along the Northern Sea Route than previous estimated. We design a route based on the projected sea‐ice extent and SFF. The new route can reduce the sailing time by 0.3–1 day by detouring the routes with lighter impacts of sea fog. More importantly the new route will lower the risk of catastrophic accidents compared to the shortest route and saves the additional costs due to unscheduled port calls. Plain Language Summary Rapid loss of sea ice under global warming opens up the Arctic Ocean to shipping. The available trans‐Arctic shipping in the near future will strongly decrease sailing time and financial costs from the Far East to Northwest Europe. Previous designs of trans‐Arctic shipping routes mainly considered sea ice distribution, but ignored the important effect of frequent and high‐risk polar sea fog. Here, we project Arctic sea fog frequency in 21st century and evaluate its influence on trans‐Arctic shipping routes. The results highlight the necessity to redesign the routes by including sea fog effect for safer ship navigation. Key Points About 20%–30% of Arctic shipping routes experience frequent sea fog frequency more than 20% Sea fog increases the shipping time by 23%–27% along the Northwest Passage and 4%–11% along the Northern Sea Route than previous estimations Shipping routes by minimizing the impacts of sea fog can save 0.3–1 days sailing time by detouring dense‐sea‐fog region

• Publisher: John Wiley & Sons, Inc,Wiley
• Subject: Arctic / Arctic sea ice / climate change / Cost control / Fog / Global warming / Navigation / Oceans / Polar regions / Redesign / Sailing / Sea fog / Sea ice / Shipping / shipping route