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The Potential Influence of Maritime Continent Deforestation on El Niño‐Southern Oscillation: Insights From Idealized Modeling Experiments
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The Potential Influence of Maritime Continent Deforestation on El Niño‐Southern Oscillation: Insights From Idealized Modeling Experiments
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Journal Article
The Potential Influence of Maritime Continent Deforestation on El Niño‐Southern Oscillation: Insights From Idealized Modeling Experiments
2023
Overview
During the past two decades, the Maritime Continent (MC) has experienced increased deforestation. Here we show, with ensemble idealized deforestation experiments, that the MC deforestation could potentially alter the complexity (i.e., event‐to‐event differences) of the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in terms of its spatial pattern and temporal evolution. The deforestation model run increases the occurrences of the Central Pacific and multi‐year types of ENSO compared to the control experiments. This change in ENSO complexity can be attributed to MC's intensification of the subtropical ENSO dynamics, commonly known as the seasonal footprinting mechanism. The deforestation amplifies the mean state of the subtropical high over the northeastern Pacific, leading to an increased dominance of subtropical ENSO dynamics in determining the ENSO pattern and evolution. This idealized coupled climate modeling study suggests that MC deforestation has a potential to alter ENSO's complexity, making El Niño more complex and less predictable. Plain Language Summary This study examines how the deforestation in the maritime continent (MC) could induce a teleconnection that further alter the characteristics of El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Using the fully‐coupled Community Earth System Model, the researchers found that the sea level pressure over the North Pacific was strengthened in the idealized deforestation experiments. The anomalous high enhanced the air‐sea coupling in the subtropical northeastern Pacific which can spread into the tropical Pacific to affect ENSO properties. Climate model simulations indicate that deforestation has the potential to increases the occurrence of Central Pacific (CP) and multi‐year types of ENSO events compared to the control experiment. More CP and multi‐year ENSO events increase the challenge of predicting the characteristics of ENSO and its global impacts. This study unveils that the potential of MC deforestation in alter ENSO properties, which could have potentially serious implications for society. Key Points Maritime Continent deforestation has a potential to alter El Niño and La Niña complexities in spatial pattern and temporal evolutions Deforestation can strengthen subtropical El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) dynamics causing more Central Pacific and multi‐year ENSOs The strengthened subtropical ENSO dynamics results from a deforestation‐induced intensification of the mean northeastern Pacific high
Publisher
John Wiley & Sons, Inc,Wiley
