Journal Article

Hierarchical Habitat Selection for Reconstructing Past and Present Niches and Distributions of Data-Limited Species Under Climate Change

Ruegg, Kristen, Hooten, Mevin B., Brown, Timothy M., Zavaleta, Erika S., Amirkhiz, Reza Goljani, Leitner, Katharina, Hong, Gabriel

2025

Overview

Aim Understanding ecological niche shifts is crucial for predicting future changes under climate change. Modelling past niche dynamics provides a baseline for gauging the severity and direction of ongoing shifts. However, reconstructing historical habitats for data‐limited, range‐restricted species is challenging, as sparse species records hinder robust inference. We introduce and apply a hierarchical modelling framework to reconstruct historical habitats, assess niche shifts over time, and estimate prediction uncertainty for data‐limited species. We applied this framework to the Sierra Nevada Grey‐crowned Rosy‐Finch (Leucosticte tephrocotis dawsoni) to evaluate changes in breeding habitat suitability under climate change. Location Alpine regions of California, USA. Methods We applied a hierarchical habitat selection approach based on three orders. Available habitats of finer orders were selected based on insights from broader orders. For each covariate we defined a range of nested scales of effects and employed indicator variable selection and spike‐and‐slab priors for variable selection. Historical niche relationships (1954–1980) were used as priors alongside current survey and bioclimatic data to characterise present‐day suitable habitats (2018–2022), estimate niche shifts, validate models and assess conservation implications. Results We found substantial habitat declines, with suitability contracting by 40%–64% across habitat selection orders and suitable breeding areas shifting upslope by approximately 280 m. Historically, suitable habitats were characterised by rugged, high‐elevation terrain with persistent snow. Contemporary distributions show reduced topographic constraints but increased reliance on diminishing snow resources, suggesting potential niche expansion. Main Conclusions Our approach effectively identified key variables across habitat selection orders, revealing both niche contraction and expansion driven by reduced snow persistence, processes likely affecting many alpine species globally. This framework offers a robust tool for characterising habitat changes for data‐limited species, with broad applicability for conservation planning. It also highlights the dynamic role of scale in species niches across space and time.

• Publisher: Wiley,John Wiley & Sons, Inc
• Subject: alpine / Alpine ecosystems / Alpine regions / Analysis / avian / Bioclimatology / Breeding sites / California / Climate change / Climate models / Climatic changes / Conservation / data‐limited species / distribution / Ecological niches / Feature selection / Habitat availability / Habitat changes / habitat preferences / Habitat selection / Habitats / hierarchical habitat selection theory / landscapes / mountains / niche / Niche (Ecology) / Niches / prediction / RESEARCH ARTICLE / Robustness / scales of effect / Sierra Nevada Grey‐crowned Rosy‐Finch / Snow / space and time / Species / Summer / surveys / topography / Trends / uncertainty / variable selection / Variables