Journal Article

Modelling the effects of global warming on the ground beetle (Coleoptera: Carabidae) fauna of beech forests in Bavaria, Germany

Muller-Kroehling, S., Bayerische Landesanstalt fur Wald und Forstwirtschaft, Freising (Germany). Unit Biodiversity, Nature Conservation, Game Management, Fischer, A., Technische Universitat Munchen, Freising (Germany). Dept. of Ecology and Ecosystem Management, Fischer, H.S., Technische Universitat Munchen, Freising (Germany). Dept. of Ecology and Ecosystem Management, Jantsch, M.C., Technische Universitat Munchen, Freising (Germany). Dept. of Ecology and Ecosystem Management

2014

Overview

We studied the effects of global warming and rising temperatures on the ground beetle fauna of Bavarian beech forests using the space for time approach at two geographical scales. The first was a Bavarian-wide gradient of 50 plots in beech forests and the second a regional gradient in the Bavarian Forest in the mountains in eastern Bavaria consisting of 48 plots, which also included subalpine spruce forests. For purposes of validation, we used backdrop data from 413 additional plots all across Bavaria from a wide range of forest habitats. We found five species that would be favoured and six species that would be disadvantaged by rising temperatures in beech forests. For another five species the conditions within the gradient studied reach both their minimum and their maximum temperatures. As a consequence of increasing temperatures there will be winners and losers in these forests and the species composition of ground beetle communities will change. Approximately the same number of species is likely to profit as will be affected negatively. However, when considering the \"global responsibility species\" for Germany, the balance is negative. Species may react differently in different habitats and at different regional scales, which must be taken into consideration when applying the results.

• Publisher: Institute of Entomology,Institute of Entomology, Biology Centre, Czech Academy of Science
• Subject: AIR TEMPERATURE / ALEMANIA / ALLEMAGNE / ANALISIS DE DATOS / ANALISIS DE SERIES CRONOLOGICAS / ANALYSE DE DONNEES / ANALYSE DE SERIES CHRONOLOGIQUES / bavaria / beech forests (fagetalia) / BIODIVERSIDAD / BIODIVERSITE / BIODIVERSITY / CAMBIO CLIMATICO / CARABIDAE / CARACTERISTICAS DEL RODAL / CARACTERISTIQUE DU PEUPLEMENT / CHANGEMENT CLIMATIQUE / Climate change / CLIMATIC CHANGE / COLEOPTERA / DATA ANALYSIS / DINAMICA DE POBLACIONES / DISTRIBUCION ESPACIAL / DISTRIBUTION SPATIALE / DYNAMIQUE DES POPULATIONS / ECOLOGIA FORESTAL / ECOLOGIE FORESTIERE / Ecosystems / ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS / ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT ASSESSMENT / ENVIRONMENTAL TEMPERATURE / ESPECE / ESPECIES / EVALUACION DEL IMPACTO AMBIENTAL / EVALUATION IMPACT SUR ENVIRONNEMENT / FACTEUR DU MILIEU / FACTORES AMBIENTALES / FAGUS SYLVATICA / FAUNA / FAUNE / FOREST ECOLOGY / FOREST STANDS / Forests / GERMANY / Global warming / ground beetles / habitat modelling / Habitats / PEUPLEMENT FORESTIER / PLANT POPULATION / POBLACION VEGETAL / POPULATION DYNAMICS / POPULATION VEGETALE / RODALES / SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION / SPECIES / Species composition / STAND CHARACTERISTICS / Studies / TEMPERATURA AMBIENTAL / TEMPERATURA DEL AIRE / TEMPERATURE AMBIANTE / TEMPERATURE DE L'AIR / temperature increase / Time series / TIME SERIES ANALYSIS