Journal Article

Focus on poleward shifts in species' distribution underestimates the fingerprint of climate change

Kutt, Alex S., Perkins, Genevieve C., VanDerWal, Jeremy, Bateman, Brooke L., Perry, Justin J., Murphy, Helen T., Reside, April E.

2013

Overview

Species are largely predicted to shift polewards as global temperatures increase. Now research—based on historical changes in the distribution of Australian birds—shows that if only poleward shifts in distribution are considered, the fingerprint of climate change is underestimated by an average of 26% in temperate regions and 95% in tropical regions. Species are largely predicted to shift poleward as global temperatures increase, with this fingerprint of climate change being already observed across a range of taxonomic groups and, mostly temperate, geographic locations 1 , 2 , 3 , 4 , 5 . However, the assumption of uni-directional distribution shifts does not account for complex interactions among temperature, precipitation and species-specific tolerances 6 , all of which shape the direction and magnitude of changes in a species’ climatic niche. We analysed 60 years of past climate change on the Australian continent, assessing the velocity of changes in temperature and precipitation, as well as changes in climatic niche space for 464 Australian birds. We show large magnitude and rapid rates of change in Australian climate over the past 60 years resulting in high-velocity and multi-directional, including equatorial, shifts in suitable climatic space for birds (ranging from 0.1 to 7.6 km yr −1 , mean 1.27 km yr −1 ). Overall, if measured only in terms of poleward distribution shifts, the fingerprint of climate change is underestimated by an average of 26% in temperate regions of the continent and by an average of 95% in tropical regions. We suggest that the velocity of movement required by Australian species to track their climatic niche may be much faster than previously thought and that the interaction between temperature and precipitation changes will result in multi-directional distribution shifts globally.

• Publisher: Nature Publishing Group UK,Nature Publishing Group
• Subject: 704/106/694 / 704/158/2165 / Animal and plant ecology / Animal, plant and microbial ecology / Biological and medical sciences / Birds / Climate Change / Climate Change/Climate Change Impacts / Climatology. Bioclimatology. Climate change / Earth and Environmental Science / Earth, ocean, space / Environment / Environmental Law/Policy/Ecojustice / Exact sciences and technology / External geophysics / Fundamental and applied biological sciences. Psychology / Global temperatures / letter / Meteorology / Niches / Synecology / Terrestrial ecosystems / Tropical environments