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Coastal Wetland Resilience, Accelerated Sea‐Level Rise, and the Importance of Timescale
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Coastal Wetland Resilience, Accelerated Sea‐Level Rise, and the Importance of Timescale
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Journal Article
Coastal Wetland Resilience, Accelerated Sea‐Level Rise, and the Importance of Timescale
2021
Overview
Recent studies have produced conflicting results as to whether coastal wetlands can keep up with present‐day and future sea‐level rise. The stratigraphic record shows that threshold rates for coastal wetland submergence or retreat are lower than what instrumental records suggest, with wetland extent that shrinks considerably under high rates of sea‐level rise. These apparent conflicts can be reconciled by recognizing that many coastal wetlands still possess sufficient elevation capital to cope with sea‐level rise, and that processes like sediment compaction, ponding, and wave erosion require multidecadal or longer timescales to drive wetland loss that is in many cases inevitable. Plain Language Summary The rapid, climate‐driven acceleration of global sea level threatens salt marshes and mangroves along low‐elevation shorelines. These coastal wetlands provide protection from storms along with other ecosystem services to vulnerable coastal communities, including several megacities. The question of how coastal wetlands will cope with future sea‐level rise is a subject of much debate, with recent research providing contradictory answers. Our analysis suggests that much of this can be attributed to the time window under consideration. Even coastal wetlands that are able to persist during the next few decades are likely to be much less resilient through the remainder of this century and beyond. Key Points The paleo‐record shows lower thresholds for submergence of marshes and mangroves than the instrumental record Accelerated relative sea‐level rise will nearly always lead to a reduction in the extent of coastal wetlands Integration of new field and remote sensing data with constraints from the paleo‐record will enable advances in coastal wetland modeling
