Journal Article

Machine Learning Predicts Risk of Falls in Parkison's Disease Patients in a Multicenter Observational Study

Garbarino, Sara, Piana, Michele, Castellano, Antonella, Mandich, Paola, Chierici, Marco, Cerne, Denise, Sabatini, Federica, Jurman, Giuseppe, Osmani, Venet, Gios, Lorenzo, Verrico, Antonio, Ragni, Flavio, Marenco, Manuela, Gerli, Filippo, Moroni, Monica, Marchese, Roberta, Avanzino, Laura, Rossi, Andrea, Ottaviani, Donatella, Pardini, Matteo, Pasquini, Guido, Portaccio, Emilio, Campi, Cristina, Cirone, Alessio, Tortora, Domenico, Bovo, Stefano, Uccelli, Antonio, Niccolai, Claudia, Cama, Isabella, Falini, Andrea, Parodi, Costanza, Malaguti, Maria Chiara, Di Giacopo, Raffaella, Longo, Chiara, Giometto, Bruno, Di Biasio, Francesca, Betti, Matteo, Bacchin, Ruggero

2025

Overview

Background Postural instability and gait difficulties are key symptoms of Parkinson's disease (PD), elevating the risk of falls substantially. Falls afflict 35% to 90% of PD patients, representing a major challenge in managing the condition. Accurate prediction of fall risk and identification of contributing factors are essential for timely interventions. Objectives Our objective was to develop and validate a machine learning (ML) algorithm across multiple centers in Italy to accurately forecast fall risk and identify related factors using routinely collected clinical data. Methods Patient data from two Italian centers (N = 251) were divided into a training cohort (N = 164) for ML model development and a validation cohort (N = 87). External validation was conducted on a subset of PPMI study patients (N = 65). We compared the performance of logistic regression (LR) and Support Vector Classifier (SVC) models trained on clinical data. The Shapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) method was employed to examine the predictive power of individual variables. Results In the training set, SVC outperformed LR slightly (AUC: LR = 0.779 ± 0.054, SVC = 0.792 ± 0.056). However, LR demonstrated better prediction accuracy in both internal (AUC: LR = 0.753, SVC = 0.733) and external validation cohorts (AUC: LR = 0.714, SVC = 0.676). SHAP analysis on the LR model revealed associations between fall risk and both motor and non‐motor variables. Conclusions ML‐based models effectively estimate fall risk across different clinical centers, enabling tailored interventions to enhance PD patients' quality of life. Challenges persist in predicting falls in US‐based patients due to demographic and healthcare system differences.

• Publisher: John Wiley & Sons, Inc,John Wiley and Sons Inc
• Subject: Accidental Falls - prevention & control / Accidental Falls - statistics & numerical data / Aged / Cohort Studies / Falls / Female / Humans / Italy / Learning algorithms / Machine Learning / Male / Middle Aged / Movement disorders / Multi‐Center Validation / Neurodegenerative diseases / Observational studies / Original / Parkinson Disease - complications / Parkinson Disease - diagnosis / Parkinson's disease / Parkinsons Disease / Patients / Quality of life / Risk