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Measles immunity gaps and outbreak risk in a shifting landscape
Measles immunity gaps and outbreak risk in a shifting landscape
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Measles immunity gaps and outbreak risk in a shifting landscape
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Measles immunity gaps and outbreak risk in a shifting landscape
Measles immunity gaps and outbreak risk in a shifting landscape
Journal Article

Measles immunity gaps and outbreak risk in a shifting landscape

2025
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Overview
In The Lancet Infectious Diseases, Valentina Marziano and colleagues present an approach to quantify measles epidemiology, immunity, and outbreak risk. 2 Using rich case investigation data from Italy for the period 2013 to 2022 (which included demographic characteristics, vaccination status, case linkages, and an importation indicator), they defined infection episodes and analysed them by age, vaccination status, and setting. To estimate age-specific and region-specific residual susceptibility based on both vaccine-derived and infection-derived immunity, the authors fit a catalytic model to population-level aggregate measles case counts by age group and year. Marziano and colleagues addressed this limitation by incorporating their 2017 effective reproduction number (R e) estimates to calculate the probability of transmission given infectious contact using age-specific immunity profiles at the start of 2025 to then estimate the 2025 R e. The authors estimated R e to be greater than 1 at the national level (ranging from 1·31 to 1·78 across regions), indicating the potential for sustained measles virus transmission in Italy.