Journal Article

Decision-making for mitigating wildlife diseases: From theory to practice for an emerging fungal pathogen of amphibians

Steinfartz, Sebastian, Lötters, Stefan, Pasmans, Frank, Martel, An, Schmidt, Benedikt R., Grant, Evan H. Campbell, Scheele, Ben C., Spitzen-van der Sluijs, Annemarieke, Canessa, Stefano, Fisher, Matthew C., Bozzuto, Claudio, Koella, Jacob C., Cruickshank, Sam S.

2018

Overview

1. Conservation science can be most effective in its decision-support role when seeking answers to clearly formulated questions of direct management relevance. Emerging wildlife diseases, a driver of global biodiversity loss, illustrate the challenges of performing this role: in spite of considerable research, successful disease mitigation is uncommon. Decision analysis is increasingly advocated to guide mitigation planning, but its application remains rare. 2. Using an integral projection model, we explored potential mitigation actions for avoiding population declines and the ongoing spatial spread of the fungus Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans (Bsal). This fungus has recently caused severe amphibian declines in north-western Europe and currently threatens Palearctic salamander diversity. 3. Available evidence suggests that a Bsal outbreak in a fire salamander (Salamandra salamandra) population will lead to its rapid extirpation. Treatments such as antifungals or probiotics would need to effectively interrupt transmission (reduce probability of infection by nearly 90%) in order to reduce the risk of host extirpation and successfully eradicate the pathogen. 4. Improving the survival of infected hosts is most likely to be detrimental as it increases the potential for pathogen transmission and spread. Active removal of a large proportion of the host population has some potential to locally eradicate Bsal and interrupt its spread, depending on the presence of Bsal reservoirs and on the host's spatial dynamics, which should therefore represent research priorities. 5. Synthesis and applications. Mitigation of Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans epidemics in susceptible host species is highly challenging, requiring effective interruption of transmission and radical removal of host individuals. More generally, our study illustrates the advantages of framing conservation science directly in the management decision context, rather than adapting to it a posteriori.

• Publisher: John Wiley & Sons Ltd,Wiley,Blackwell Publishing Ltd
• Subject: 0501 Ecological Applications / 0502 Environmental Science And Management / 0602 Ecology / 10127 Institute of Evolutionary Biology and Environmental Studies / 2303 Ecology / 570 Life sciences; biology / 590 Animals (Zoology) / amphibian / amphibian; Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans; chytrid fungus; conservation management; disease spread; epidemiology; host–pathogen; integral projection model; salamander; transmission / Amphibians / Animal diseases / antifungal agents / Batrachochytrium / Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans / Biodiversity / Biodiversity loss / chytrid fungus / chytridiomycosis / Conservation / conservation management / Decision analysis / Decision making / decision support systems / Decision theory / disease / disease outbreaks / disease spread / Disease transmission / Ecology / Epidemics / epidemiology / Fungi / hosts / host–pathogen / integral projection model / Management decisions / mitigation / Northern European region / Outbreaks / Palearctic region / Parasites and pathogens / Pathogens / planning / Population decline / population dynamics / probability / Probiotics / Projection model / Reptiles & amphibians / risk reduction / salamander / salamanders and newts / Salamandra salamandra / transmission / Wildlife / Wildlife conservation / wildlife diseases / Wildlife management