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The Changing Cyclicality of Labor Force Participation
by
Van Zandweghe, Willem
in
1948-2017
/ Age
/ Business cycles
/ Economic conditions
/ Economic growth
/ Economic models
/ Employment
/ Forecasts and trends
/ GDP
/ Gross Domestic Product
/ Households
/ Kansas
/ Labor force
/ Labor force participation
/ Labor market
/ Older people
/ Older workers
/ Participation
/ Real wages
/ Recessions
/ Trends
/ Unemployment
/ Wages & salaries
/ Workers
2017
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The Changing Cyclicality of Labor Force Participation
by
Van Zandweghe, Willem
in
1948-2017
/ Age
/ Business cycles
/ Economic conditions
/ Economic growth
/ Economic models
/ Employment
/ Forecasts and trends
/ GDP
/ Gross Domestic Product
/ Households
/ Kansas
/ Labor force
/ Labor force participation
/ Labor market
/ Older people
/ Older workers
/ Participation
/ Real wages
/ Recessions
/ Trends
/ Unemployment
/ Wages & salaries
/ Workers
2017
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Do you wish to request the book?
The Changing Cyclicality of Labor Force Participation
by
Van Zandweghe, Willem
in
1948-2017
/ Age
/ Business cycles
/ Economic conditions
/ Economic growth
/ Economic models
/ Employment
/ Forecasts and trends
/ GDP
/ Gross Domestic Product
/ Households
/ Kansas
/ Labor force
/ Labor force participation
/ Labor market
/ Older people
/ Older workers
/ Participation
/ Real wages
/ Recessions
/ Trends
/ Unemployment
/ Wages & salaries
/ Workers
2017
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Journal Article
The Changing Cyclicality of Labor Force Participation
2017
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Overview
In this article, I examine whether the labor force participation rate has become more cyclical over time. I find that cyclical fluctuations in the participation rate have become more pronounced, but the most notable shift occurred around 1984—well before the most recent recession. Specifically, the correlation between cyclical components of labor force participation and real gross domestic product more than doubled from the 1948–83 period to the 1984–2017 period. The increased cyclicality of the participation rate reflects an increased cyclicality of employment that was only partly offset by countercyclical fluctuations in unemployment. Notably, the participation rate has not become more cyclical for all segments of the labor force. Although the participation rate of prime-age workers (25−54) has become more cyclical over time, the participation rate of older workers has become countercyclical.
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