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The Role of Mesoscale Cloud Morphology in the Shortwave Cloud Feedback
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The Role of Mesoscale Cloud Morphology in the Shortwave Cloud Feedback
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The Role of Mesoscale Cloud Morphology in the Shortwave Cloud Feedback
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Journal Article
The Role of Mesoscale Cloud Morphology in the Shortwave Cloud Feedback
2023
Overview
A supervised neural network algorithm is used to categorize near‐global satellite retrievals into three mesoscale cellular convective (MCC) cloud morphology patterns. At constant cloud amount, morphology patterns differ in brightness associated with the amount of optically thin cloud features. Environmentally driven transitions from closed MCC to other morphology patterns, typically accompanied by more optically thin cloud features, are used as a framework to quantify the morphology contribution to the optical depth component of the shortwave cloud feedback. A marine heat wave is used as an out‐of‐sample test of closed MCC occurrence predictions. Morphology shifts in optical depth between 65°S and 65°N under projected environmental changes (i.e., from an abrupt quadrupling of CO2) assuming constant cloud cover contributes between 0.04 and 0.07 W m−2 K−1 (aggregate of 0.06) to the global mean cloud feedback. Plain Language Summary Marine boundary layer clouds are essential to the energy balance of Earth, reflecting sunlight back to space and covering a large percentage of the globe. These clouds can organize into open, closed, and disorganized cellular structures. Cloud morphology patterns differ in their ability to reflect sunlight back to space. Closed cellular clouds transition to open and disorganized clouds associated with changes in environmental factors (i.e., sea surface temperature and the stability of the lower atmosphere). This study examines how a shift in cloud morphology with climate change will change the amount of sunlight reflected back to space: a shortwave cloud feedback. We predict the frequency of occurrence of closed cellular clouds based on changes in environmental factors estimated from global climate model simulations under climate change scenarios. An observed marine heat wave is used to test occurrence predictions. The change in reflected sunlight due to the shift between morphology types at fixed fractional cloud cover produces a global feedback that ranges between 0.04 and 0.07 W m−2 K−1. Key Points Mesoscale cloud morphology albedo varies with fraction of optically thin cloud features Closed mesoscale cellular convection occurrence changes are predictable from environmental controls Environmentally driven cloud morphology changes in optical depth produce a shortwave feedback of 0.04–0.07 W m−2 K−1
