Journal Article

New Physical Implications From Revisiting Foreshock Activity in Southern California

Herrmann, Marcus, Marzocchi, Warner, Manganiello, Ester

2023

Overview

Foreshock analysis promises new insights into the earthquake nucleation process and could potentially improve earthquake forecasting. Well‐performing clustering models like the Epidemic‐Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model assume that foreshocks and general seismicity are generated by the same physical process, implying that foreshocks can be identified only in retrospect. However, several studies have recently found higher foreshock activity than predicted by ETAS. Here, we revisit the foreshock activity in southern California using different statistical methods and find anomalous foreshock sequences, that is, those unexplained by ETAS, mostly for mainshock magnitudes below 5.5. The spatial distribution of these anomalies reveals a preferential occurrence in zones of high heat flow, which are known to host swarm‐like seismicity. Outside these zones, the foreshocks generally behave as expected by ETAS. These findings show that anomalous foreshock sequences in southern California do not indicate a pre‐slip nucleation process, but swarm‐like behavior driven by heat flow. Plain Language Summary Many studies have observed that large earthquakes are preceded by smaller events, called foreshocks. If they have distinctive characteristics that make them recognizable in an ongoing sequence in real time, they can significantly improve the forecasting capability of large earthquakes. To investigate the nature of foreshocks, we compare actual seismicity with the expectation of the most skilled earthquake forecasting model, which assumes that foreshocks are not different from other earthquakes. We find that discrepancies between reality and expectation mostly affect foreshock sequences that anticipate moderate mainshocks with magnitudes below 5.5. We find that those anomalous foreshock sequences tend to occur more often where the heat flow is high. Those zones are already known for the occurrence of swarm‐like sequences, which are prolonged episodes of seismicity without a dominant event. Outside these zones, the observed foreshock activity is explained well by the forecasting model. These findings indicate that anomalous foreshock sequences are not indicating impending large earthquakes but are influenced by the heat flow. Key Points We compare the foreshock activity in southern California with the expectation of the best‐performing class of earthquake clustering models Sequences with an anomalous excess of foreshocks are associated mostly with moderate mainshocks and preferentially with high heat flow We neither find evidence against the cascade nucleation hypothesis nor in favor of the pre‐slip nucleation hypothesis

• Publisher: John Wiley & Sons, Inc,Wiley
• Subject: Anomalies / Clustering / earthquake catalog / Earthquake forecasting / Earthquake prediction / earthquake statistics / Earthquakes / Exercise / Forecasting / foreshocks / Heat / Heat flow / Heat transfer / Heat transmission / hypothesis testing / Mathematical models / Modelling / Nucleation / Seismic activity / Seismicity / Sequencing / Spatial distribution / Statistical methods / statistical seismology