Journal Article

Effective Conservation Decisions Require Models Designed for Purpose: A Case Study of Boreal Caribou in Ontario's Ring of Fire

Dyson, Matthew E., Endicott, Sarah, Hughes, Josie, Rempel, Rob, Leblond, Mathieu, Simpkins, Craig, Avery‐Gomm, Stephanie, Baltzer, Jennifer L., Johnson, Cheryl A., Turner, Julie W., Neilson, Eric W., Stewart, Frances E. C., Wiebe, Philip A.

2026

Overview

Decision making in conservation science relies on the best available information. This may include using models that were not designed for purpose and are not accompanied by an assessment of limitations. To begin addressing these issues, we sought to reproduce and evaluate the spatial transferability of the two best available models for predicting impacts of proposed mining on boreal woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou) in northern Ontario. We evaluated their suitability for projecting the impacts of development in the Ring of Fire region. To aid in accessibility, we developed an R package for data preparation, modeling of resource selection, and demographic modeling. We found models were either ill‐suited or lacking for ongoing regional planning. The specificity of the regional resource selection model limited its usefulness for predicting impacts of development, and the high variability across caribou ranges limited the usefulness of a national aspatial demographic model for predicting range‐specific impacts. These existing models are not enough to provide spatially explicit information needed to minimize detrimental effects of anthropogenic development on caribou recovery in northern Ontario. Models designed for forecasting that are regularly updated with range‐specific demographic and habitat information are required. Decision making in conservation science often relies on the best available information, but existing models are rarely reproducible, transferrable, or accessible. We sought to reproduce and evaluate the suitability of the two best available models for predicting impacts of proposed mining on boreal woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou) in northern Ontario and evaluated their suitability for projecting the impacts of development in the Ring of Fire region. Neither model was sufficient to provide the spatially explicit information needed to minimize detrimental effects of anthropogenic development on caribou recovery in northern Ontario; models designed for forecasting are required.

• Publisher: John Wiley & Sons, Inc,Wiley
• Subject: Applied Ecology / Biogeography / Caribou / caribouMetrics / Conservation / Conservation Ecology / Decision making / decision‐support / demographic model / Demographics / Demography / environmental impact assessment / Environmental protection / Habitats / Human influences / Mines / Mining / Modelling / Natural resources / open science / Peatlands / Population / Population Ecology / Rangifer tarandus caribou / Regional development / Regional planning / resource selection function / Roads & highways / Wildlife conservation / Woodlands