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Basis-Momentum
by
PRADO, MELISSA PORRAS
, BOONS, MARTIJN
in
Accounting
/ Basis
/ Commodities
/ Commodity markets
/ Compensation
/ Economics and Econometrics
/ Finance
/ Futures
/ Futures trading
/ Hedging
/ Portfolios
/ Premiums
/ Storage
/ Supply & demand
/ Time series
2019
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Do you wish to request the book?
Basis-Momentum
by
PRADO, MELISSA PORRAS
, BOONS, MARTIJN
in
Accounting
/ Basis
/ Commodities
/ Commodity markets
/ Compensation
/ Economics and Econometrics
/ Finance
/ Futures
/ Futures trading
/ Hedging
/ Portfolios
/ Premiums
/ Storage
/ Supply & demand
/ Time series
2019
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Journal Article
Basis-Momentum
2019
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Overview
We introduce a return predictor related to the slope and curvature of the futures term structure: basis-momentum. Basis-momentum strongly outperforms benchmark characteristics in predicting commodity spot and term premiums in both the time series and the cross section. Exposure to basis-momentum is priced among commodity-sorted portfolios and individual commodities. We argue that basis-momentum captures imbalances in the supply and demand of futures contracts that materialize when the market-clearing ability of speculators and intermediaries is impaired, and that it represents compensation for priced risk. Our findings are inconsistent with alternative explanations based on storage, inventory, and hedging pressure.
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