Journal Article

Integrated climate and land use change scenarios for California rangeland ecosystem services: wildlife habitat, soil carbon, and water supply

Soulard, Christopher E, Sleeter, Benjamin M, Casey, Clyde F, Flint, Lorraine E, Flint, Alan L, Byrd, Kristin B, Alvarez, Pelayo, Sohl, Terry L

2015

Overview

CONTEXT: In addition to biodiversity conservation, California rangelands generate multiple ecosystem services including livestock production, drinking and irrigation water, and carbon sequestration. California rangeland ecosystems have experienced substantial conversion to residential land use and more intensive agriculture. OBJECTIVES: To understand the potential impacts to rangeland ecosystem services, we developed six spatially explicit (250 m) climate/land use change scenarios for the Central Valley of California and surrounding foothills consistent with three Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emission scenario narratives. METHODS: We quantified baseline and projected change in wildlife habitat, soil organic carbon (SOC), and water supply (recharge and runoff). For six case study watersheds we quantified the interactions of future development and changing climate on recharge, runoff and streamflow, and precipitation thresholds where dominant watershed hydrological processes shift through analysis of covariance. RESULTS: The scenarios show that across the region, habitat loss is expected to occur predominantly in grasslands, primarily due to future development (up to a 37 % decline by 2100), however habitat loss in priority conservation errors will likely be due to cropland and hay/pasture expansion (up to 40 % by 2100). Grasslands in the region contain approximately 100 teragrams SOC in the top 20 cm, and up to 39 % of this SOC is subject to conversion by 2100. In dryer periods recharge processes typically dominate runoff. Future development lowers the precipitation value at which recharge processes dominate runoff, and combined with periods of drought, reduces the opportunity for recharge, especially on deep soils. CONCLUSION: Results support the need for climate-smart land use planning that takes recharge areas into account, which will provide opportunities for water storage in dry years. Given projections for agriculture, more modeling is needed on feedbacks between agricultural expansion on rangelands and water supply.

• Publisher: Springer-Verlag,Springer Netherlands,Springer Nature B.V
• Subject: Agricultural expansion / Agricultural land / Agriculture / Biodiversity / Biomedical and Life Sciences / carbon / Carbon sequestration / case studies / Central Valley of California / climate / Climate change / Conservation / covariance / cropland / Drinking water / Drought / Ecology / Ecosystem services / Ecosystems / Environmental Management / Foothills / Grasslands / habitat destruction / Habitat loss / Habitats / hay / Intensive farming / Irrigation water / Land use / land use change / Land use management / Land use planning / Landscape Ecology / Landscape/Regional and Urban Planning / Life Sciences / Livestock / Livestock production / Nature Conservation / Organic carbon / Pasture / pastures / Precipitation / Rangelands / Recharge / Recharge areas / Research Article / residential areas / Runoff / soil / soil organic carbon / Stream discharge / Stream flow / Sustainable Development / Terrestrial ecosystems / Water storage / Water supply / Watersheds / Wildlife / Wildlife habitats