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Estimating geological CO2 storage security to deliver on climate mitigation
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Journal Article
Estimating geological CO2 storage security to deliver on climate mitigation
2018
Overview
Carbon capture and storage (CCS) can help nations meet their Paris CO
2
reduction commitments cost-effectively. However, lack of confidence in geologic CO
2
storage security remains a barrier to CCS implementation. Here we present a numerical program that calculates CO
2
storage security and leakage to the atmosphere over 10,000 years. This combines quantitative estimates of geological subsurface CO
2
retention, and of surface CO
2
leakage. We calculate that realistically well-regulated storage in regions with moderate well densities has a 50% probability that leakage remains below 0.0008% per year, with over 98% of the injected CO
2
retained in the subsurface over 10,000 years. An unrealistic scenario, where CO
2
storage is inadequately regulated, estimates that more than 78% will be retained over 10,000 years. Our modelling results suggest that geological storage of CO
2
can be a secure climate change mitigation option, but we note that long-term behaviour of CO
2
in the subsurface remains a key uncertainty.
Carbon capture and storage can help reduce CO
2
emissions but the confidence in geologic CO
2
storage security is uncertain. Here the authors present a numerical programme to estimate leakage from wells and find that under appropriate regulation 98% of injected CO
2
will be retained over 10,000 years.
Publisher
Nature Publishing Group UK,Nature Publishing Group,Nature Portfolio
Subject
