Journal Article

Increasing global precipitation whiplash due to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions

Tan, Xuejin, Liu, Yaxin, Tan, Xuezhi, Deng, Simin, Fu, Jianyu, Huang, Zeqin, Liu, Bingjun, Gan, Thian Yew, Wu, Xinxin

2023

Overview

Precipitation whiplash, including abrupt shifts between wet and dry extremes, can cause large adverse impacts on human and natural systems. Here we quantify observed and projected changes in characteristics of sub-seasonal precipitation whiplash and investigate the role of individual anthropogenic influences on these changes. Results show that the occurrence frequency of global precipitation whiplash is projected to be 2.56 ± 0.16 times higher than in 1979–2019 by the end of the 21 st Century, with increasingly rapid and intense transitions between two extremes. The most dramatic increases of whiplash show in the polar and monsoon regions. Changes in precipitation whiplash show a much higher percentage change than precipitation totals. In historical simulations, anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) and aerosol emissions have increased and decreased precipitation whiplash occurrences, respectively. By 2079, anthropogenic GHGs are projected to increase 55 ± 4% of the occurrences risk of precipitation whiplash, which is driven by shifts in circulation patterns conducive to precipitation extremes. This study shows that the occurrence frequency of global precipitation whiplash is projected to be ~2.6 times higher by the end of the 21st century compared to 1979–2019, with increasingly rapid and intense transitions between the two extremes.

• Publisher: Nature Publishing Group UK,Nature Publishing Group,Nature Portfolio
• Subject: 21st century / 704/106/35/823 / 704/4111 / Anthropogenic factors / Emissions / Greenhouse gases / Human influences / Humanities and Social Sciences / Monsoons / multidisciplinary / Precipitation / Science / Science (multidisciplinary)