Journal Article

Radiocarbon test for demographic events in written and oral history

Edinborough, Kevan, Brown, Thomas Jay, Porčić, Marko, Martindale, Andrew, Supernant, Kisha, Ames, Kenneth M.

2017

Overview

We extend an established simulation-based method to test for significant short-duration (1–2 centuries) demographic events known from one documented historical and one oral historical context. Case study 1 extrapolates population data from the Western historical tradition using historically derived demographic data from the catastrophic European Black Death/bubonic plague (Yersinia pestis). We find a corresponding statistically significant drop in absolute population using an extended version of a previously published simulation method. Case study 2 uses this refined simulation method to test for a settlement gap identified in oral historical records of descendant Tsimshian First Nations communities from the Prince Rupert Harbour region of the Pacific Northwest region of British Columbia, Canada. Using a regional database of n = 523 radiocarbon dates, we find a significant drop in relative population using the extended simulation-based method consistent with Tsimshian oral records. We conclude that our technical refinement extends the utility of radiocarbon simulation methods and can provide a rigorous test of demographic predictions derived from a range of historical sources.

• Publisher: National Academy of Sciences
• Subject: Anthropology / Archaeology / Bubonic plague / Carbon dating / Case studies / Demographics / Historic sites / Oral history / Plague / Population studies / Simulation / Social Sciences / Statistical analysis / Test procedures