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Scenarios for the Altamira cave CO2 concentration from 1950 to 2100

by Kerr, Yann, H , Sánchez-Moral, Sergio , Mangiarotti, Sylvain , Fernández-Cortés, Ángel , Sáez, Marina , Centre d'études spatiales de la biosphère (CESBIO) ; Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3) ; Communauté d'universités et établissements de Toulouse (Comue de Toulouse)-Communauté d'universités et établissements de Toulouse (Comue de Toulouse)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE) , Huc, Mireille , Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES) , University of Alicante [Spain] , Mialon, Arnaud , Cuezva, Soledad , Centre Hospitalier Lyon Sud [CHU - HCL] (CHLS) ; Hospices Civils de Lyon (HCL) , Benavente, David , Hospices Civils de Lyon (HCL)

in 704/106/35/823 / 704/106/694/2739 / 704/106/694/2786 / Carbon dioxide / Caves / Climate change / Environmental Sciences / Greenhouse gases / Humanities and Social Sciences / multidisciplinary / Pigments / Science / Science (multidisciplinary) / Soil moisture / Soil temperature / Ventilation

2024

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Scenarios for the Altamira cave CO2 concentration from 1950 to 2100

2024

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2024

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Journal Article

Scenarios for the Altamira cave CO2 concentration from 1950 to 2100

Kerr, Yann, H,

Sánchez-Moral, Sergio,

Mangiarotti, Sylvain,

Fernández-Cortés, Ángel,

Sáez, Marina,

Centre d'études spatiales de la biosphère (CESBIO) ; Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3) ; Communauté d'universités et établissements de Toulouse (Comue de Toulouse)-Communauté d'universités et établissements de Toulouse (Comue de Toulouse)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE),

Huc, Mireille,

Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES),

University of Alicante [Spain],

Mialon, Arnaud,

Cuezva, Soledad,

Centre Hospitalier Lyon Sud [CHU - HCL] (CHLS) ; Hospices Civils de Lyon (HCL),

Benavente, David,

Hospices Civils de Lyon (HCL)

2024

Overview

Abstract A data-driven approach insensitive to the initial conditions was developed to extract governing equations for the concentration of CO 2 in the Altamira cave (Spain) and its two main drivers: the outside temperature and the soil moisture. This model was then reformulated in order to use satellite observations and meteorological predictions, as a forcing. The concentration of CO 2 inside the cave was then investigated from 1950 to 2100 under various scenarios. It is found that extreme levels of CO 2 were reached during the period 1950–1972 due to the massive affluence of visitors. It is demonstrated that it is possible to monitor the CO 2 in the cave in real time using satellite information as an external forcing. For the future, it is shown that the maximum values of CO 2 will exceed the levels reached during the 1980s and the 1990s when the CO 2 introduced by the touristic visits, although intentionally reduced, still enhanced considerably the micro corrosion of walls and pigments.

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Publisher

Nature Publishing Group,CCSD,Nature Publishing Group UK,Nature Portfolio

Subject

/ Caves

/ Environmental Sciences