Journal Article

Nomogram prediction model for prognosis of patients with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis

Wang, Hongfen, Du, Yuguo, Huang, Xusheng, Sun, Qionghua, Jiang, Yuqing, Ding, Jichao, Ma, Tie, Huang, Yonghua, Deng, Guochao, Xia, Zhenxi

2026

Overview

Objectives To analyze the factors affecting prognosis of patients with sporadic amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS), to establish a nomogram predictive model. Methods A total of 236 patients with sporadic ALS hospitalized in the Department of Neurology of the First Medical Center, Chinese PLA General Hospital, from March 2011 to November 2021 were enrolled in the study. Basic information and clinical and laboratory data of patients were collected, including sex, age at onset, body mass index, disease duration, diagnostic grade, and serum levels of creatine kinase (CK), creatinine (Cr), uric acid (UA), and ferritin. Kaplan-Meier univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazard regression models were used to analyze the prognostic factors, and a nomogram predictive model was established. Results Univariate analysis showed that ferritin, CK, Cr, age at onset, disease duration, and body mass index (BMI) were all correlated with prognosis of ALS. Multivariate analysis showed that ferritin, Cr, disease duration, age at onset, and BMI were the strongest predictors. ROC curve and correction curve analyses verified the accuracy of the nomogram prediction model. Conclusions Ferritin, Cr, disease duration, age at onset, and BMI are independent predictors of survival in patients with ALS. Based on these clinical and biological prognostic factors, we established a quantitative model for predicting survival probability, and may assist in the prognostic evaluation of ALS, pending further validation.

• Publisher: BioMed Central,BioMed Central Ltd,BMC
• Subject: Adult / Age of Onset / Aged / Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis / Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis - blood / Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis - diagnosis / Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis - mortality / Analysis / Body Mass Index / Creatine / Creatine kinase / Creatine Kinase - blood / Creatinine - blood / Diagnosis / Evidence-based medicine / Female / Ferritin / Ferritins - blood / Humans / Kaplan-Meier Estimate / Male / Medical centers / Medical colleges / Medical research / Medicine / Medicine & Public Health / Medicine, Experimental / Middle Aged / Neurochemistry / Neurology / Neurosurgery / Nomogram model / Nomograms / Nomography (Mathematics) / Physiological aspects / Prognosis / Proportional Hazards Models / Uric Acid - blood