Journal Article

Early-warning signals for critical transitions

Brock, William A., Brovkin, Victor, Held, Hermann, Rietkerk, Max, Sugihara, George, Carpenter, Stephen R., Scheffer, Marten, Bascompte, Jordi, van Nes, Egbert H., Dakos, Vasilis

2009

Overview

Tip-offs for tipping points Many complex systems, ranging from ecosystems to financial markets and the climate, can have critical thresholds or tipping points where a sudden shift from one stable state to a contrasting regime may occur. Predicting such critical points before they are reached is extremely difficult, but work in different fields of science is now suggesting the existence of generic early warning signals that may indicate for a wide class of systems if a critical threshold is approaching. Scheffer et al . conclude their review of this work optimistically: in situations where the existence of a critical transition is suspected, the generic character of the warning signs suggests that they may provide valuable information on whether the probability of a major event is increasing. Complex dynamical systems, ranging from ecosystems to financial markets and the climate, can have tipping points at which a sudden shift to a contrasting dynamical regime may occur. Although predicting such critical points before they are reached is extremely difficult, work in different scientific fields is now suggesting the existence of generic early-warning signals that may indicate for a wide class of systems if a critical threshold is approaching.

• Publisher: Nature Publishing Group UK,Nature Publishing Group
• Subject: abrupt climate-change / Analysis / Animal, plant and microbial ecology / Animals / Applied ecology / Asthma - physiopathology / Biological and medical sciences / catastrophic regime shifts / Climate / Complex systems / critical slowing-down / Ecosystem / ecosystems / Ecotoxicology, biological effects of pollution / Environmental aspects / Environmental Sciences / epileptic seizures / Equilibrium / Eutrophication / Extinction, Biological / Fundamental and applied biological sciences. Psychology / Humanities and Social Sciences / Humans / Models, Biological / Models, Economic / multidisciplinary / Natural history / Ocean circulation / Oceanographic research / Range ecology / review-article / Science / Seizures - physiopathology / self-organized patchiness / Stochastic Processes / Studies / Techniques / thermohaline circulation / thresholds / time-series / Warning systems