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Global irrigation contribution to wheat and maize yield

by Gerber, James , Makowski, David , Wang, Xuhui , Deryng, Delphine , Mueller, Nathaniel , Olin, Stefan , Yang, Hui , Pugh, Thomas A. M. , Folberth, Christian , Reddy, Ashwan , Zhou, Feng , Jaegermeyr, Jonas , Liu, Wenfeng , Ciais, Philippe , Dumas, Patrice , Jeong, Sujong , Elliot, Joshua , Schmid, Erwin , Li, Laurent , Wang, Chenzhi , Piao, Shilong

in 631/158/2456 / 704/158/2456 / 704/172 / Agricultural and Veterinary sciences / Agricultural production / Agricultural Science / Agriculture / Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries / Bayesian analysis / Climate change / Climate change mitigation / Corn / Crop production / Crop yield / Crops / Drought / Environmental impact / Environmental Sciences / Humanities and Social Sciences / Irrigation / Irrigation water / Jordbruk, skogsbruk och fiske / Jordbruksvetenskap / Lantbruksvetenskap och veterinärmedicin / Mathematical models / Meteorology And Climatology / multidisciplinary / Rainfed farming / River discharge / River flow / Science / Science (multidisciplinary) / Statistical analysis / Water discharge / Water diversion / Water supply / Water use / Wheat

2021

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2021

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Journal Article

Global irrigation contribution to wheat and maize yield

Gerber, James,

Makowski, David,

Wang, Xuhui,

Deryng, Delphine,

Mueller, Nathaniel,

Olin, Stefan,

Yang, Hui,

Pugh, Thomas A. M.,

Folberth, Christian,

Reddy, Ashwan,

Zhou, Feng,

Jaegermeyr, Jonas,

Liu, Wenfeng,

Ciais, Philippe,

Dumas, Patrice,

Jeong, Sujong,

Elliot, Joshua,

Schmid, Erwin,

Li, Laurent,

Wang, Chenzhi,

Piao, Shilong

2021

Overview

Irrigation is the largest sector of human water use and an important option for increasing crop production and reducing drought impacts. However, the potential for irrigation to contribute to global crop yields remains uncertain. Here, we quantify this contribution for wheat and maize at global scale by developing a Bayesian framework integrating empirical estimates and gridded global crop models on new maps of the relative difference between attainable rainfed and irrigated yield (ΔY). At global scale, ΔY is 34 ± 9% for wheat and 22 ± 13% for maize, with large spatial differences driven more by patterns of precipitation than that of evaporative demand. Comparing irrigation demands with renewable water supply, we find 30–47% of contemporary rainfed agriculture of wheat and maize cannot achieve yield gap closure utilizing current river discharge, unless more water diversion projects are set in place, putting into question the potential of irrigation to mitigate climate change impacts.

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Publisher

Nature Research,Nature Publishing Group UK,Nature Publishing Group,Nature Portfolio

Subject

631/158/2456

/ 704/158/2456

/ 704/172

/ Agricultural and Veterinary sciences

/ Agricultural production

/ Agricultural Science

/ Agriculture