Journal Article

Child-Na Score: A Predictive Model for Survival in Cirrhotic Patients with Symptomatic Portal Hypertension Treated with TIPS

Fan, Daiming, He, Chuangye, Bai, Ming, Chen, Hui, Qi, Xingshun, Yin, Zhanxin, Han, Guohong, Liu, Lei

2013

Overview

Several models have been developed to predict survival in patients with cirrhosis undergoing TIPS; however, few of these models have gained widespread acceptance, especially in the era of covered stents. The aim of this study was to establish an evidence-based model for predicting survival after TIPS procedures. A total of 210 patients with cirrhosis treated with TIPS were considered in the study. We comprehensively investigated factors associated with one-year survival and developed a new predictive model using the Cox regression model. In the multivariate analysis, the Child-Pugh score and serum sodium levels were independent predictors of one-year survival. A new score incorporating serum sodium into the Child-Pugh score was developed: Child-Na score. We compared the predictive accuracy of Child-Na score with that of other scores; only the Child-Na and MELD-Na scores had adequate predictive ability in patients with serum Na levels <138 mmol/L. The best Child-Na cut-off score (15.5) differentiated two groups of patients with distinct prognoses (one-year cumulative survival rates of 80.6% and 45.5%); this finding was confirmed in a validation cohort (n = 86). In a subgroup analysis stratifying patients by indication for TIPS, the Child-Na score distinguished patients with different prognoses. Patients with variceal bleeding and a Child-Na score ≤15 had a better prognosis than patients with a score ≥16. Patients with refractory ascites and a Child-Na score ≥16 had a high risk of death after the TIPS procedures; caution should be used when treating these patients with TIPS.

• Publisher: Public Library of Science,Public Library of Science (PLoS)
• Subject: Adult / Aged / Aged, 80 and over / Ascites / Bleeding / Care and treatment / Cause of Death / Cirrhosis / Female / Gastroenterology / Hepatology / Hospitals / Humans / Hypertension / Hypertension, Portal - blood / Hypertension, Portal - etiology / Hypertension, Portal - mortality / Hypertension, Portal - surgery / Implants / Liver cirrhosis / Liver Cirrhosis - complications / Liver diseases / Male / Medical prognosis / Medical research / Middle Aged / Models, Statistical / Mortality / Multivariate analysis / Patient outcomes / Patients / Portasystemic Shunt, Transjugular Intrahepatic / Prediction models / Prognosis / Reference Values / Regression analysis / Regression models / ROC Curve / Sodium / Sodium - blood / Stents / Subgroups / Surgical implants / Survival / Thrombosis / Tips / Veins & arteries / Young Adult