Journal Article

Early Antenatal Prediction of Gestational Diabetes in Obese Women: Development of Prediction Tools for Targeted Intervention

Oteng-Ntim, Eugene, Poston, Lucilla, Briley, Annette L., Nelson, Scott M., Sattar, Naveed, Lawlor, Debbie A., White, Sara L., Whitworth, Melissa, Welsh, Paul, Seed, Paul T., Vieira, Matias C., Pasupathy, Dharmintra, Robson, Stephen C., Godfrey, Keith M.

2016

Overview

All obese women are categorised as being of equally high risk of gestational diabetes (GDM) whereas the majority do not develop the disorder. Lifestyle and pharmacological interventions in unselected obese pregnant women have been unsuccessful in preventing GDM. Our aim was to develop a prediction tool for early identification of obese women at high risk of GDM to facilitate targeted interventions in those most likely to benefit. Clinical and anthropometric data and non-fasting blood samples were obtained at 15+0-18+6 weeks' gestation in 1303 obese pregnant women from UPBEAT, a randomised controlled trial of a behavioural intervention. Twenty one candidate biomarkers associated with insulin resistance, and a targeted nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) metabolome were measured. Prediction models were constructed using stepwise logistic regression. Twenty six percent of women (n = 337) developed GDM (International Association of Diabetes and Pregnancy Study Groups criteria). A model based on clinical and anthropometric variables (age, previous GDM, family history of type 2 diabetes, systolic blood pressure, sum of skinfold thicknesses, waist:height and neck:thigh ratios) provided an area under the curve of 0.71 (95%CI 0.68-0.74). This increased to 0.77 (95%CI 0.73-0.80) with addition of candidate biomarkers (random glucose, haemoglobin A1c (HbA1c), fructosamine, adiponectin, sex hormone binding globulin, triglycerides), but was not improved by addition of NMR metabolites (0.77; 95%CI 0.74-0.81). Clinically translatable models for GDM prediction including readily measurable variables e.g. mid-arm circumference, age, systolic blood pressure, HbA1c and adiponectin are described. Using a ≥35% risk threshold, all models identified a group of high risk obese women of whom approximately 50% (positive predictive value) later developed GDM, with a negative predictive value of 80%. Tools for early pregnancy identification of obese women at risk of GDM are described which could enable targeted interventions for GDM prevention in women who will benefit the most.

• Publisher: Public Library of Science,Public Library of Science (PLoS)
• Subject: Adiponectin / Adult / Analysis / Anthropometry / Arm circumference / Biology and Life Sciences / Biomarkers / Blood / Blood pressure / Body mass index / Complications and side effects / Consortia / Development and progression / Diabetes / Diabetes mellitus / Diabetes mellitus (non-insulin dependent) / Diabetes, Gestational - diagnosis / Epidemiology / Female / Genetics / Gestation / Gestational diabetes / Globulins / Glucose / Glycosylated hemoglobin / Health aspects / Health risk assessment / Health risks / Hemoglobin / Humans / Insulin / Insulin resistance / Intervention / Magnetic resonance / Mathematical models / Medicine and Health Sciences / Metabolites / Neck / NMR / Nuclear magnetic resonance / Nutrition research / Obesity / Obesity - complications / Obesity - diagnosis / Obstetrics / Pharmacology / Physiological aspects / Prediction models / Pregnancy / Pregnant women / Prenatal care / Prognosis / Prospective Studies / Regression analysis / Risk / Risk factors / Studies / Systematic review / Thigh / Triglycerides / Womens health