Journal Article

Global socio-economic losses and environmental gains from the Coronavirus pandemic

Kenway, Steven, Wang, Yafei, Yousefzadeh, Moslem, Gómez-Paredes, Jorge, Lenzen, Manfred, Wakiyama, Takako, Nansai, Keisuke, Pomponi, Francesco, Malik, Arunima, Fry, Jacob, Prokopenko, Mikhail, Gallego, Blanca, Geschke, Arne, Sun, Ya-Yen, Li, Mengyu, Wiedmann, Thomas, Faturay, Futu, Kanemoto, Keiichiro

2020

Overview

On 3 April 2020, the Director-General of the WHO stated: \"[COVID-19] is much more than a health crisis. We are all aware of the profound social and economic consequences of the pandemic (WHO, 2020)\". Such consequences are the result of counter-measures such as lockdowns, and world-wide reductions in production and consumption, amplified by cascading impacts through international supply chains. Using a global multi-regional macro-economic model, we capture direct and indirect spill-over effects in terms of social and economic losses, as well as environmental effects of the pandemic. Based on information as of May 2020, we show that global consumption losses amount to 3.8$tr, triggering significant job (147 million full-time equivalent) and income (2.1$tr) losses. Global atmospheric emissions are reduced by 2.5Gt of greenhouse gases, 0.6Mt of PM2.5, and 5.1Mt of SO2 and NOx. While Asia, Europe and the USA have been the most directly impacted regions, and transport and tourism the immediately hit sectors, the indirect effects transmitted along international supply chains are being felt across the entire world economy. These ripple effects highlight the intrinsic link between socio-economic and environmental dimensions, and emphasise the challenge of addressing unsustainable global patterns. How humanity reacts to this crisis will define the post-pandemic world.

• Publisher: Public Library of Science,Public Library of Science (PLoS)
• Subject: Air pollution / Commerce / Conservation of Natural Resources / Consumption / Coronavirus Infections - economics / Coronaviruses / COVID-19 / Disease transmission / Earth Sciences / Ecology and Environmental Sciences / Economic analysis / Economic aspects / Economic impact / Economic models / Economics / Emissions / Employment / Environmental aspects / Environmental effects / Epidemics / GDP / Global economy / Greenhouse effect / Greenhouse Gases / Gross Domestic Product / Humans / Industrial plant emissions / Manufacturing / Outdoor air quality / Pandemics / Pandemics - economics / Particulate matter / People and Places / Physical Sciences / Physics / Pneumonia, Viral - economics / Regional development / Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 / Social aspects / Social Sciences / Socioeconomic Factors / Socioeconomics / Sulfur dioxide / Supply chains / Sustainability / Tourism / World economy