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High Contagiousness and Rapid Spread of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2
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High Contagiousness and Rapid Spread of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2
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Journal Article
High Contagiousness and Rapid Spread of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2
2020
Overview
Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 is the causative agent of the ongoing coronavirus disease pandemic. Initial estimates of the early dynamics of the outbreak in Wuhan, China, suggested a doubling time of the number of infected persons of 6-7 days and a basic reproductive number (R
) of 2.2-2.7. We collected extensive individual case reports across China and estimated key epidemiologic parameters, including the incubation period (4.2 days). We then designed 2 mathematical modeling approaches to infer the outbreak dynamics in Wuhan by using high-resolution domestic travel and infection data. Results show that the doubling time early in the epidemic in Wuhan was 2.3-3.3 days. Assuming a serial interval of 6-9 days, we calculated a median R
value of 5.7 (95% CI 3.8-8.9). We further show that active surveillance, contact tracing, quarantine, and early strong social distancing efforts are needed to stop transmission of the virus.
Publisher
U.S. National Center for Infectious Diseases,Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
Subject
2019 novel coronavirus disease
/ Analysis
/ Coronavirus Infections - epidemiology
/ Coronavirus Infections - prevention & control
/ Coronavirus Infections - transmission
/ COVID-19
/ High Contagiousness and Rapid Spread of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2
/ Humans
/ Pandemics - prevention & control
/ Pneumonia, Viral - epidemiology
/ Pneumonia, Viral - prevention & control
/ Pneumonia, Viral - transmission
/ Severe acute respiratory syndrome
/ Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2
/ Travel
/ viruses
