Journal Article

Cold‐Season Methane Fluxes Simulated by GCP‐CH4 Models

Kleinen, T., Melton, J. R., Ciais, P., Hopcroft, P. O., Tian, H., Peng, C., Fluet‐Chouinard, E., Li, T., Liu, X., Riley, W., Ito, A., Zhang, W., Zhang, Z., Sitch, S., Chang, K.‐Y., McNicol, G., Qin, Z., Zhu, Q., Poulter, B., Joos, F., Beerling, D. J., Zhuang, Q., Patra, P.

2023

Overview

Cold‐season methane (CH4) emissions may be poorly constrained in wetland models. We examined cold‐season CH4 emissions simulated by 16 models participating in the Global Carbon Project model intercomparison and analyzed temporal and spatial patterns in simulation results using prescribed inundation data for 2000–2020. Estimated annual CH4 emissions from northern (>60°N) wetlands averaged 10.0 ± 5.5 Tg CH4 yr−1. While summer CH4 emissions were well simulated compared to in‐situ flux measurement observations, the models underestimated CH4 during September to May relative to annual total (27 ± 9%, compared to 45% in observations) and substantially in the months with subzero air temperatures (5 ± 5%, compared to 27% in observations). Because of winter warming, nevertheless, the contribution of cold‐season emissions was simulated to increase at 0.4 ± 0.8% decade−1. Different parameterizations of processes, for example, freezing–thawing and snow insulation, caused conspicuous variability among models, implying the necessity of model refinement. Plain Language Summary Wetlands in the northern high latitudes are a major source of methane (CH4) to the atmosphere, mainly during the warm season. Previously, models have assumed that cold‐season CH4 emissions are low, but recent observations suggest high‐latitude wetlands can be substantial sources even in winter. We compared CH4 emissions simulated by 16 state‐of‐the‐art wetland models, participating in a model intercomparison project with a focus on the cold‐season in northern wetlands. The model simulations indicated that nearly one third of annual emissions were simulated to occur from September to May, and CH4 emissions to the atmosphere were not negligible even under freezing air temperatures, although the results differed greatly among the models. However, field studies suggest cold‐season emissions account for an even larger fraction of annual emissions. These results highlight the contribution of cold‐season emissions to the annual CH4 budget, which future climatic warming is expected to affect severely, and they also show that simulations of cold‐season CH4 emissions from wetlands need to be improved. Key Points Cold‐season methane (CH4) emissions simulated by 16 Global Carbon Project‐CH4 wetland models were analyzed Most models underestimate the cold‐season emissions in comparison with observational data Further model improvement by including cold‐season processes is required to reduce the model bias and uncertainty

• Publisher: John Wiley & Sons, Inc,American Geophysical Union,Wiley
• Subject: Air temperature / Annual / Atmosphere / Atmospheric models / Cold / cold‐season emissions / Earth and Related Environmental Sciences / Emissions / Freeze-thaw / Freeze-thawing / Freezing / Geovetenskap och relaterad miljövetenskap / global warming / Insulating materials / Insulation / Intercomparison / Latitude / Methane / methane budget / model intercomparison / Modelling / Natural Sciences / Naturgeografi / Naturvetenskap / Physical Geography / Sciences of the Universe / Seasons / Simulation / Thawing / Warm seasons / wetland models / Wetlands / Winter