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Measuring a roller coaster: evidence on the Finnish output gap
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Measuring a roller coaster: evidence on the Finnish output gap
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Journal Article
Measuring a roller coaster: evidence on the Finnish output gap
2006
Overview
The output gap - which measures the deviation of actual output from its potential - is frequently used as an indicator of slack in an economy. This article estimates the Finnish output gap using various empirical methods. It evaluates these methods against economic history and each other by a simulated out-of-sample forecasting exercise for Finnish CPI inflation. Only two gap measures, stemming from a frequency-domain approach and the Blanchard-Quah decomposition, perform better than the naïve prediction of no change in inflation - but do not improve upon a simple autoregressive forecast. The pronounced volatility of output in Finland makes it particularly difficult to estimate potential output, producing considerable uncertainty about the size (and sign) of the gap. Reprinted by permission of Finnish Society for Economic Research
Publisher
Finnish Economic Association
Subject
