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OBSERVATIONS REGARDING YIELD CURVE INVERSIONS
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Journal Article
OBSERVATIONS REGARDING YIELD CURVE INVERSIONS
2020
Overview
It is widely understood that an inversion of the yield curve of a government's debt securities is a precursor to a domestic recession. The inversion-recession link has been reinforced by the popular press as a forgone conclusion to such an extent that the public does not question the nuances involved with an inversion of yields. Additionally, many academic and practitioner studies use a variety of different measures of inversion. This paper is an attempt to focus attention on the meaning of yield curve inversion as well as the frequency with which it occurs within U.S. Treasury securities. Specifically, it is shown that different maturity yields invert more frequently than is perhaps realized. Further, these maturity inversions are apparently not notable events given the silence of the press when they occur. One is left to question which definition of an inverted yield curve is most relevant given the context in which it will be used.
Publisher
American Society of Business and Behavioral Sciences
Subject
