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More Risks, Less Confidence: Safety, Security, and Defense in the Indo-Pacific Underwater Domain
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More Risks, Less Confidence: Safety, Security, and Defense in the Indo-Pacific Underwater Domain
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More Risks, Less Confidence: Safety, Security, and Defense in the Indo-Pacific Underwater Domain
2023
Overview
[...]most importantly, how can we manage and hopefully, reduce these risks? To survive at and under the sea is the sailor's safety imperative.5 A record of submarine accidents and incidents within the recent decade shows the continuing challenge of meeting this safety imperative.6 Figure 1 and the Annex show that collisions account for 45% of total (46) submarine accidents and incidents in 2001-2021, followed by grounding, explosion, fire, technical faults, flooding, and other causes.7 The accidents that befell Nanggala and Connecticut eerily paralleled those of ARA San Juan in 2017 and USS San Francisco in 2005, respectively.8 The former sank with all 44 hands due to technical faults, while the latter hit a seamount with 98 casualties, including one fatality. Nuclear technology greatly extended submarines' operational endurance; by eliminating the need for sailors, Al could eliminate the safety imperative for human operators.11 Once the human element is out of the operational picture, will it mean that submarine and other underwater military operations are less risky? [...]the future underwater domain will host various means of warfare bom out of the three revolutions from the last two centuries: industrial, nuclear, and information.18 The industrial revolution, which oversaw the adoption and operation of diesel-electric submarines in World War I and II, led to the nuclear revolution in the Cold War that introduced nuclear propulsion and nuclear weapons to submarines.19 The question is what will the information revolution, with Al at its core, bring to the fore in this century and specifically, in the Indo-Pacific?
Publisher
Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Subject
