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Lassa fever (LF) is a viral haemorrhagic fever endemic in West Africa and spread primarily by the multimammate rat, Mastomys natalensis . As there is no vaccine, reduction of rodent-human transmission is essential for disease control. As the household is thought to be a key site of transmission, understanding domestic risk factors for M. natalensis abundance is crucial. Rodent captures in conjunction with domestic surveys were carried out in 6 villages in an area of rural Upper Guinea with high LF endemicity. 120 rodent traps were set in rooms along a transect in each village for three nights, and the survey was administered in each household on the transects. This study was able to detect several domestic risk factors for increased rodent abundance in rural Upper Guinea. Regression analysis demonstrated that having > 8 holes (RR = 1.8 [1.0004–3.2, p = 0.048), the presence of rodent burrows (RR = 2.3 [1.6–3.23, p = 0.000003), and being in a multi-room square building (RR = 2.0 [1.3–2.9], p = 0.001) were associated with increased rodent abundance. The most addressable of these may be rodent burrows, as burrow patching is a relatively simple process that may reduce rodent entry. Further study is warranted to explicitly link domestic rodent abundance to LF risk, to better characterize domestic risk factors, and to evaluate how household rodent-proofing interventions could contribute to LF control.

Ever since it was established that rodents serve as reservoirs of the zoonotic Lassa virus (LASV), scientists have sought to answer the questions: which populations of rodents carry the virus? How do fluctuations in LASV prevalence and rodent abundance influence Lassa fever outbreaks in humans? What does it take for the virus to adopt additional rodent hosts, proliferating what already are devastating cycles of rodent-to-human transmission? In this review, we examine key aspects of research involving the biology of rodents that affect their role as LASV reservoirs, including phylogeography, demography, virus evolution, and host switching. We discuss how this knowledge can help control Lassa fever and suggest further areas for investigation.

Lassa fever is caused by a viral haemorrhagic arenavirus that affects two to three million people in West Africa, causing a mortality of between 5,000 and 10,000 each year. The natural reservoir of Lassa virus is the multi-mammate rat Mastomys natalensis, which lives in houses and surrounding fields. With the aim of gaining more information to control this disease, we here carry out a spatial analysis of Lassa fever data from human cases and infected rodent hosts covering the period 1965-2007. Information on contemporary environmental conditions (temperature, rainfall, vegetation) was derived from NASA Terra MODIS satellite sensor data and other sources and for elevation from the GTOPO30 surface for the region from Senegal to the Congo. All multi-temporal data were analysed using temporal Fourier techniques to generate images of means, amplitudes and phases which were used as the predictor variables in the models. In addition, meteorological rainfall data collected between 1951 and 1989 were used to generate a synoptic rainfall surface for the same region. Three different analyses (models) are presented, one superimposing Lassa fever outbreaks on the mean rainfall surface (Model 1) and the other two using non-linear discriminant analytical techniques. Model 2 selected variables in a step-wise inclusive fashion, and Model 3 used an information-theoretic approach in which many different random combinations of 10 variables were fitted to the Lassa fever data. Three combinations of absenceratiopresence clusters were used in each of Models 2 and 3, the 2 absenceratio1 presence cluster combination giving what appeared to be the best result. Model 1 showed that the recorded outbreaks of Lassa fever in human populations occurred in zones receiving between 1,500 and 3,000 mm rainfall annually. Rainfall, and to a much lesser extent temperature variables, were most strongly selected in both Models 2 and 3, and neither vegetation nor altitude seemed particularly important. Both Models 2 and 3 produced mean kappa values in excess of 0.91 (Model 2) or 0.86 (Model 3), making them 'Excellent'. The Lassa fever areas predicted by the models cover approximately 80% of each of Sierra Leone and Liberia, 50% of Guinea, 40% of Nigeria, 30% of each of Côte d'Ivoire, Togo and Benin, and 10% of Ghana.

Lassa virus (LASV) causes a deadly haemorrhagic fever in humans, killing several thousand people in West Africa annually. For 40 years, the Natal multimammate rat, Mastomys natalensis , has been assumed to be the sole host of LASV. We found evidence that LASV is also hosted by other rodent species: the African wood mouse Hylomyscus pamfi in Nigeria, and the Guinea multimammate mouse Mastomys erythroleucus in both Nigeria and Guinea. Virus strains from these animals were isolated in the BSL-4 laboratory and fully sequenced. Phylogenetic analyses of viral genes coding for glycoprotein, nucleoprotein, polymerase and matrix protein show that Lassa strains detected in M. erythroleucus belong to lineages III and IV. The strain from H. pamfi clusters close to lineage I (for S gene) and between II & III (for L gene). Discovery of new rodent hosts has implications for LASV evolution and its spread into new areas within West Africa.

Forecasting the risk of pathogen spillover from reservoir populations of wild or domestic animals is essential for the effective deployment of interventions such as wildlife vaccination or culling. Due to the sporadic nature of spillover events and limited availability of data, developing and validating robust, spatially explicit, predictions is challenging. Recent efforts have begun to make progress in this direction by capitalizing on machine learning methodologies. An important weakness of existing approaches, however, is that they generally rely on combining human and reservoir infection data during the training process and thus conflate risk attributable to the prevalence of the pathogen in the reservoir population with the risk attributed to the realized rate of spillover into the human population. Because effective planning of interventions requires that these components of risk be disentangled, we developed a multi-layer machine learning framework that separates these processes. Our approach begins by training models to predict the geographic range of the primary reservoir and the subset of this range in which the pathogen occurs. The spillover risk predicted by the product of these reservoir specific models is then fit to data on realized patterns of historical spillover into the human population. The result is a geographically specific spillover risk forecast that can be easily decomposed and used to guide effective intervention. Applying our method to Lassa virus, a zoonotic pathogen that regularly spills over into the human population across West Africa, results in a model that explains a modest but statistically significant portion of geographic variation in historical patterns of spillover. When combined with a mechanistic mathematical model of infection dynamics, our spillover risk model predicts that 897,700 humans are infected by Lassa virus each year across West Africa, with Nigeria accounting for more than half of these human infections.

Lassa fever is a viral haemorrhagic fever caused by an arenavirus. The disease is endemic in West African countries, including Guinea. The rodents Mastomys natalensis and Mastomys erythroleucus have been identified as Lassa virus reservoirs in Guinea. In the absence of a vaccine, rodent control and human behavioural changes are the only options to prevent Lassa fever in highly endemic areas. We performed a 4 year intervention based on chemical rodent control, utilizing anticoagulant rodenticides in 3 villages and evaluating the rodent abundance before and after treatment. Three additional villages were investigated as controls. Analyses to assess the effectiveness of the intervention, bait consumption and rodent dynamics were performed. Anthropological investigations accompanied the intervention to integrate local understandings of human-rodent cohabitation and rodent control intervention. Patterns of bait consumption showed a peak at days 5-7 and no consumption at days 28-30. There was no difference between Bromadiolone and Difenacoum bait consumption. The main rodent species found in the houses was M. natalensis. The abundance of M. natalensis, as measured by the trapping success, varied between 3.6 and 16.7% before treatment and decreased significantly to 1-2% after treatment. Individuals in treated villages welcomed the intervention and trapping because mice are generally regarded as a nuisance. Immediate benefits from controlling rodents included protection of food and belongings. Before the intervention, local awareness of Lassa fever was non-existent. Despite their appreciation for the intervention, local individuals noted its limits and the need for complementary actions. Our results demonstrate that chemical treatment provides an effective tool to control local rodent populations and can serve as part of an effective, holistic approach combining rodent trapping, use of local rodenticides, environmental hygiene, house repairs and rodent-proof storage. These actions should be developed in collaboration with local stakeholders and communities.

As a consequence of the Ebola outbreak, human–animal contact has gained importance for zoonotic transmission surveillance. In Faranah (Upper Guinea), daily life is intertwined with rodents, such as the Natal multimammate mouse, Mastomys natalensis; a reservoir for Lassa virus (LASV). However, this contact is rarely perceived as a health risk by residents, although Lassa fever (LF) is known to be endemic to this region. Conversely, these observations remain a great concern for global health agendas. Drawing on ethnographic research involving interviews, focus group discussions, participant observations, and informal discussions over four months, we first identified factors that motivated children to hunt and consume rodents in Faranah villages, and thereafter, explored the knowledge of LF infection in children and their parents. Furthermore, we studied two dimensions of human-rodent encounters: 1) space-time of interaction and 2) factors that allowed the interaction to occur and their materiality. This approach allowed us to contextualize child-rodent contacts beyond domestic limits in the fallow fields, swamps, and at other times for this practice. A close look at these encounters provided information on rodent trapping, killing, and manipulation of cooking techniques and the risk these activities posed for the primary transmission of LASV. This research facilitated the understanding of children’s exposure to M . natalensis during hunting sessions and the importance of rodent hunting, which is a part of their boyish identity in rural areas. Determination of when, where, why, and how children, rodents, and environments interacted allowed us to understand the exposures and risks important for human and animal surveillance programs in the Lassa-endemic region.

The black rat ( Rattus rattus ) is a globally invasive species that has been widely introduced across Africa. Within its invasive range in West Africa, R. rattus may compete with the native rodent Mastomys natalensis , the primary reservoir host of Lassa virus, a zoonotic pathogen that kills thousands annually. Here, we use rodent trapping data from Sierra Leone and Guinea to show that R. rattus presence reduces M. natalensis density within the human dwellings where Lassa virus exposure is most likely to occur. Further, we integrate infection data from M. natalensis to demonstrate that Lassa virus zoonotic spillover risk is lower at sites with R. rattus . While non-native species can have numerous negative effects on ecosystems, our results suggest that R. rattus invasion has the indirect benefit of decreasing zoonotic spillover of an endemic pathogen, with important implications for invasive species control across West Africa. Mastomys natalensis is a rodent species native to West Africa that is the primary reservoir host for Lassa virus. Here, the authors investigate whether the invasive rodent Rattus rattus decreases M. natalensis density and could therefore indirectly decrease zoonotic transmission of Lassa virus to humans.

Reducing spillover of zoonotic pathogens is an appealing approach to preventing human disease and minimizing the risk of future epidemics and pandemics. Although the immediate human health benefit of reducing spillover is clear, over time, spillover reduction could lead to counterintuitive negative consequences for human health. Here, we use mathematical models and computer simulations to explore the conditions under which unanticipated consequences of spillover reduction can occur in systems where the severity of disease increases with age at infection. Our results demonstrate that, because the average age at infection increases as spillover is reduced, programs that reduce spillover can actually increase population-level disease burden if the clinical severity of infection increases sufficiently rapidly with age. If, however, immunity wanes over time and reinfection is possible, our results reveal that negative health impacts of spillover reduction become substantially less likely. When our model is parameterized using published data on Lassa virus in West Africa, it predicts that negative health outcomes are possible, but likely to be restricted to a small subset of populations where spillover is unusually intense. Together, our results suggest that adverse consequences of spillover reduction programs are unlikely but that the public health gains observed immediately after spillover reduction may fade over time as the age structure of immunity gradually re-equilibrates to a reduced force of infection.

This study aimed to identify the causative agent of mass mortality in wild and captive birds in southwest Germany and to gather insights into the phylogenetic relationship and spatial distribution of the pathogen. Since June 2011, 223 dead birds were collected and tested for the presence of viral pathogens. Usutu virus (USUV) RNA was detected by real-time RT-PCR in 86 birds representing 6 species. The virus was isolated in cell culture from the heart of 18 Blackbirds (Turdus merula). USUV-specific antigen was demonstrated by immunohistochemistry in brain, heart, liver, and lung of infected Blackbirds. The complete polyprotein coding sequence was obtained by deep sequencing of liver and spleen samples of a dead Blackbird from Mannheim (BH65/11-02-03). Phylogenetic analysis of the German USUV strain BH65/11-02-03 revealed a close relationship with strain Vienna that caused mass mortality among birds in Austria in 2001. Wild birds from lowland river valleys in southwest Germany were mainly affected by USUV, but also birds kept in aviaries. Our data suggest that after the initial detection of USUV in German mosquitoes in 2010, the virus spread in 2011 and caused epizootics among wild and captive birds in southwest Germany. The data also indicate an increased risk of USUV infections in humans in Germany.