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There is a realistic expectation that the global effort in vaccination will bring the pandemic caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) under control. Nonetheless, uncertainties remain about the type of long-term association that the virus will establish with the human population and, in particular, whether coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) will become an endemic disease. Although the trajectory is difficult to predict, the conditions, concepts and variables that influence this transition can be anticipated. Persistence of SARS-CoV-2 as an endemic virus, perhaps with seasonal epidemic peaks, may be fuelled by pockets of susceptible individuals and waning immunity after infection or vaccination, changes in the virus through antigenic drift that diminish protection and re-entries from zoonotic reservoirs. Here we review relevant observations from previous epidemics and discuss the potential evolution of SARS-CoV-2 as it adapts during persistent transmission in the presence of a level of population immunity. Lack of effective surveillance or adequate response could enable the emergence of new epidemic or pandemic patterns from an endemic infection of SARS-CoV-2. There are key pieces of data that are urgently needed in order to make good decisions; we outline these and propose a way forward. This Perspective discusses possible future patterns of SARS-CoV-2 infection, the development of variants, potential changes in the patterns of spread and the implications for vaccine deployment and the potential consequences of these issues for the development of policy.

Lassa virus (LASV) is endemic in the rodent populations of Sierra Leone, Nigeria and other countries in West Africa. Spillover to humans occurs frequently and results in Lassa fever, a viral haemorrhagic fever (VHF) associated with a high case fatality rate. Despite advances, fundamental gaps in knowledge of the immunology, epidemiology, ecology and pathogenesis of Lassa fever persist. More frequent outbreaks, the potential for further geographic expansion of Mastomys natalensis and other rodent reservoirs, the ease of procurement and possible use and weaponization of LASV, the frequent importation of LASV to North America and Europe, and the emergence of novel LASV strains in densely populated West Africa have driven new initiatives to develop countermeasures for LASV. Although promising candidates are being evaluated, as yet there are no approved vaccines or therapeutics for human use. This Review discusses the virology of LASV, the clinical course of Lassa fever and the progress towards developing medical countermeasures.Lassa fever is a viral haemorrhagic fever that spills over from its rodent reservoir. Continued viral evolution and increasing exposure make Lassa virus a high-risk pathogen. In this Review, Garry highlights new insights into the virology, disease presentation and potential countermeasures.

We aerosolized severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 and determined that its dynamic aerosol efficiency surpassed those of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus and Middle East respiratory syndrome. Although we performed experiment only once across several laboratories, our findings suggest retained infectivity and virion integrity for up to 16 hours in respirable-sized aerosols.

Recent outbreaks of viral hemorrhagic fevers (VHFs), including Ebola virus disease (EVD) and Lassa fever (LF), highlight the urgent need for sensitive, deployable tests to diagnose these devastating human diseases. Here we develop CRISPR-Cas13a-based (SHERLOCK) diagnostics targeting Ebola virus (EBOV) and Lassa virus (LASV), with both fluorescent and lateral flow readouts. We demonstrate on laboratory and clinical samples the sensitivity of these assays and the capacity of the SHERLOCK platform to handle virus-specific diagnostic challenges. We perform safety testing to demonstrate the efficacy of our HUDSON protocol in heat-inactivating VHF viruses before SHERLOCK testing, eliminating the need for an extraction. We develop a user-friendly protocol and mobile application (HandLens) to report results, facilitating SHERLOCK’s use in endemic regions. Finally, we successfully deploy our tests in Sierra Leone and Nigeria in response to recent outbreaks. Outbreaks of viral hemorrhagic fevers highlight the need for sensitive, field-deployable diagnostics. Here the authors present a CRISPR-based SHERLOCK platform with field protocol and mobile app for Ebola and Lassa fever outbreaks.

In its largest outbreak, Ebola virus disease is spreading through Guinea, Liberia, Sierra Leone, and Nigeria. We sequenced 99 Ebola virus genomes from 78 patients in Sierra Leone to ~2000× coverage. We observed a rapid accumulation of interhost and intrahost genetic variation, allowing us to characterize patterns of viral transmission over the initial weeks of the epidemic. This West African variant likely diverged from central African lineages around 2004, crossed from Guinea to Sierra Leone in May 2014, and has exhibited sustained human-to-human transmission subsequently, with no evidence of additional zoonotic sources. Because many of the mutations alter protein sequences and other biologically meaningful targets, they should be monitored for impact on diagnostics, vaccines, and therapies critical to outbreak response.

The arenavirus Lassa causes severe hemorrhagic fever and a significant disease burden in West Africa every year. The glycoprotein, GPC, is the sole antigen expressed on the viral surface and the critical target for antibody-mediated neutralization. Here we present the crystal structure of the trimeric, prefusion ectodomain of Lassa GP bound to a neutralizing antibody from a human survivor at 3.2-angstrom resolution. The antibody extensively anchors two monomers together at the base of the trimer, and biochemical analysis suggests that it neutralizes by inhibiting conformational changes required for entry. This work illuminates pH-driven conformational changes in both receptor-binding and fusion subunits of Lassa virus, illustrates the unique assembly of the arenavirus glycoprotein spike, and provides a much-needed template for vaccine design against these threats to global health.

An increase in Lassa fever cases was identified in Nigeria this year. In this analysis of the infecting viruses, the predominant mode of transmission appeared to be multiple insertions from local rodent populations rather than sustained person-to-person spread.

Lassa fever is a severe viral hemorrhagic fever caused by a zoonotic virus that repeatedly spills over to humans from its rodent reservoirs. It is currently not known how climate and land use changes could affect the endemic area of this virus, currently limited to parts of West Africa. By exploring the environmental data associated with virus occurrence using ecological niche modelling, we show how temperature, precipitation and the presence of pastures determine ecological suitability for virus circulation. Based on projections of climate, land use, and population changes, we find that regions in Central and East Africa will likely become suitable for Lassa virus over the next decades and estimate that the total population living in ecological conditions that are suitable for Lassa virus circulation may drastically increase by 2070. By analysing geotagged viral genomes using spatially-explicit phylogeography and simulating virus dispersal, we find that in the event of Lassa virus being introduced into a new suitable region, its spread might remain spatially limited over the first decades. It is currently unknown how climate and land use changes could affect the endemic area of Lassa virus, a zoonotic pathogen responsible for Lassa fever. Here, the authors show that by 2070, new regions in Africa will likely become ecologically suitable for Lassa virus, drastically increasing the population living in conditions favourable for virus circulation.

Jingmen viruses are newly described segmented flavi-like viruses that have a worldwide distribution in ticks and have been associated with febrile illnesses in humans. Computational analyses were used to predict that Jingmen flavi-like virus glycoproteins have structural features of class II viral fusion proteins, including an ectodomain consisting of beta-sheets and short alpha-helices, a fusion peptide with interfacial hydrophobicity and a three-domain architecture. Jingmen flavi-like virus glycoproteins have a sequence enriched in serine, threonine, and proline at the amino terminus, which is a feature of mucin-like domains. Several of the serines and threonines are predicted be modified by the addition of O-linked glycans. Some of the glycoproteins are predicted to have an additional mucin-like domain located prior to the transmembrane anchor, whereas others are predicted to have a stem consisting of two alpha-helices. The flavivirus envelope protein and Jingmen flavi-virus glycoproteins may have diverged from a common class II precursor glycoprotein with a mucin-like domain or domains acquired after divergence.

Thomas Geisbert and colleagues show that a cocktail of monoclonal antibodies protects cynomolgus monkeys from lethal Lassa fever virus infection, including when administration is delayed by more than a week after viral challenge. There are no approved treatments for Lassa fever, which is endemic to the same regions of West Africa that were recently devastated by Ebola. Here we show that a combination of human monoclonal antibodies that cross-react with the glycoproteins of all four clades of Lassa virus is able to rescue 100% of cynomolgus macaques when treatment is initiated at advanced stages of disease, including up to 8 d after challenge.