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"Neal, Bruce"
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Interpretation of the evidence for the efficacy and safety of statin therapy
by
Armitage, Jane
,
Sandercock, Peter
,
Blumenthal, Roger
in
Anticholesteremic Agents - therapeutic use
,
Cardiovascular disease
,
Cholesterol
2016
This Review is intended to help clinicians, patients, and the public make informed decisions about statin therapy for the prevention of heart attacks and strokes. It explains how the evidence that is available from randomised controlled trials yields reliable information about both the efficacy and safety of statin therapy. In addition, it discusses how claims that statins commonly cause adverse effects reflect a failure to recognise the limitations of other sources of evidence about the effects of treatment. Large-scale evidence from randomised trials shows that statin therapy reduces the risk of major vascular events (ie, coronary deaths or myocardial infarctions, strokes, and coronary revascularisation procedures) by about one-quarter for each mmol/L reduction in LDL cholesterol during each year (after the first) that it continues to be taken. The absolute benefits of statin therapy depend on an individual's absolute risk of occlusive vascular events and the absolute reduction in LDL cholesterol that is achieved. For example, lowering LDL cholesterol by 2 mmol/L (77 mg/dL) with an effective low-cost statin regimen (eg, atorvastatin 40 mg daily, costing about £2 per month) for 5 years in 10 000 patients would typically prevent major vascular events from occurring in about 1000 patients (ie, 10% absolute benefit) with pre-existing occlusive vascular disease (secondary prevention) and in 500 patients (ie, 5% absolute benefit) who are at increased risk but have not yet had a vascular event (primary prevention). Statin therapy has been shown to reduce vascular disease risk during each year it continues to be taken, so larger absolute benefits would accrue with more prolonged therapy, and these benefits persist long term. The only serious adverse events that have been shown to be caused by long-term statin therapy—ie, adverse effects of the statin—are myopathy (defined as muscle pain or weakness combined with large increases in blood concentrations of creatine kinase), new-onset diabetes mellitus, and, probably, haemorrhagic stroke. Typically, treatment of 10 000 patients for 5 years with an effective regimen (eg, atorvastatin 40 mg daily) would cause about 5 cases of myopathy (one of which might progress, if the statin therapy is not stopped, to the more severe condition of rhabdomyolysis), 50–100 new cases of diabetes, and 5–10 haemorrhagic strokes. However, any adverse impact of these side-effects on major vascular events has already been taken into account in the estimates of the absolute benefits. Statin therapy may cause symptomatic adverse events (eg, muscle pain or weakness) in up to about 50–100 patients (ie, 0·5–1·0% absolute harm) per 10 000 treated for 5 years. However, placebo-controlled randomised trials have shown definitively that almost all of the symptomatic adverse events that are attributed to statin therapy in routine practice are not actually caused by it (ie, they represent misattribution). The large-scale evidence available from randomised trials also indicates that it is unlikely that large absolute excesses in other serious adverse events still await discovery. Consequently, any further findings that emerge about the effects of statin therapy would not be expected to alter materially the balance of benefits and harms. It is, therefore, of concern that exaggerated claims about side-effect rates with statin therapy may be responsible for its under-use among individuals at increased risk of cardiovascular events. For, whereas the rare cases of myopathy and any muscle-related symptoms that are attributed to statin therapy generally resolve rapidly when treatment is stopped, the heart attacks or strokes that may occur if statin therapy is stopped unnecessarily can be devastating.
Journal Article
Profits and pandemics: prevention of harmful effects of tobacco, alcohol, and ultra-processed food and drink industries
2013
The 2011 UN high-level meeting on non-communicable diseases (NCDs) called for multisectoral action including with the private sector and industry. However, through the sale and promotion of tobacco, alcohol, and ultra-processed food and drink (unhealthy commodities), transnational corporations are major drivers of global epidemics of NCDs. What role then should these industries have in NCD prevention and control? We emphasise the rise in sales of these unhealthy commodities in low-income and middle-income countries, and consider the common strategies that the transnational corporations use to undermine NCD prevention and control. We assess the effectiveness of self-regulation, public–private partnerships, and public regulation models of interaction with these industries and conclude that unhealthy commodity industries should have no role in the formation of national or international NCD policy. Despite the common reliance on industry self-regulation and public–private partnerships, there is no evidence of their effectiveness or safety. Public regulation and market intervention are the only evidence-based mechanisms to prevent harm caused by the unhealthy commodity industries.
Journal Article
Worldwide access to treatment for end-stage kidney disease: a systematic review
2015
End-stage kidney disease is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide. Prevalence of the disease and worldwide use of renal replacement therapy (RRT) are expected to rise sharply in the next decade. We aimed to quantify estimates of this burden.
We systematically searched Medline for observational studies and renal registries, and contacted national experts to obtain RRT prevalence data. We used Poisson regression to estimate the prevalence of RRT for countries without reported data. We estimated the gap between needed and actual RRT, and projected needs to 2030.
In 2010, 2·618 million people received RRT worldwide. We estimated the number of patients needing RRT to be between 4·902 million (95% CI 4·438–5·431 million) in our conservative model and 9·701 million (8·544–11·021 million) in our high-estimate model, suggesting that at least 2·284 million people might have died prematurely because RRT could not be accessed. We noted the largest treatment gaps in low-income countries, particularly Asia (1·907 million people needing but not receiving RRT; conservative model) and Africa (432 000 people; conservative model). Worldwide use of RRT is projected to more than double to 5·439 million (3·899–7·640 million) people by 2030, with the most growth in Asia (0·968 million to a projected 2·162 million [1·571–3·014 million]).
The large number of people receiving RRT and the substantial number without access to it show the need to both develop low-cost treatments and implement effective population-based prevention strategies.
Australian National Health and Medical Research Council.
Journal Article
Effect of Salt Substitution on Cardiovascular Events and Death
by
Hao, Zhixin
,
Feng, Xiangxian
,
Zhang, Ruijuan
in
Acute coronary syndromes
,
Adverse events
,
Aged
2021
In a cluster-randomized trial, villages were assigned in a 1:1 ratio to use a salt substitute (75% sodium chloride and 25% potassium chloride by mass) or regular salt. Among persons who had a history of stroke or were 60 years of age or older and had hypertension, rates of stroke, major cardiovascular events, and death were lower with the salt substitute, which had no apparent serious adverse effects.
Journal Article
Impact of diabetes on the effects of sodium glucose co-transporter-2 inhibitors on kidney outcomes: collaborative meta-analysis of large placebo-controlled trials
by
Wanner, Christoph
,
Heerspink, Hiddo J.L.
,
Perkovic, Vlado
in
Acute Kidney Injury
,
Adolescent
,
Adult
2022
Large trials have shown that sodium glucose co-transporter-2 (SGLT2) inhibitors reduce the risk of adverse kidney and cardiovascular outcomes in patients with heart failure or chronic kidney disease, or with type 2 diabetes and high risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease. None of the trials recruiting patients with and without diabetes were designed to assess outcomes separately in patients without diabetes.
We did a systematic review and meta-analysis of SGLT2 inhibitor trials. We searched the MEDLINE and Embase databases for trials published from database inception to Sept 5, 2022. SGLT2 inhibitor trials that were double-blind, placebo-controlled, performed in adults (age ≥18 years), large (≥500 participants per group), and at least 6 months in duration were included. Summary-level data used for analysis were extracted from published reports or provided by trial investigators, and inverse-variance-weighted meta-analyses were conducted to estimate treatment effects. The main efficacy outcomes were kidney disease progression (standardised to a definition of a sustained ≥50% decrease in estimated glomerular filtration rate [eGFR] from randomisation, a sustained low eGFR, end-stage kidney disease, or death from kidney failure), acute kidney injury, and a composite of cardiovascular death or hospitalisation for heart failure. Other outcomes were death from cardiovascular and non-cardiovascular disease considered separately, and the main safety outcomes were ketoacidosis and lower limb amputation. This study is registered with PROSPERO, CRD42022351618.
We identified 13 trials involving 90 413 participants. After exclusion of four participants with uncertain diabetes status, we analysed 90 409 participants (74 804 [82·7%] participants with diabetes [>99% with type 2 diabetes] and 15 605 [17·3%] without diabetes; trial-level mean baseline eGFR range 37–85 mL/min per 1·73 m2). Compared with placebo, allocation to an SGLT2 inhibitor reduced the risk of kidney disease progression by 37% (relative risk [RR] 0·63, 95% CI 0·58–0·69) with similar RRs in patients with and without diabetes. In the four chronic kidney disease trials, RRs were similar irrespective of primary kidney diagnosis. SGLT2 inhibitors reduced the risk of acute kidney injury by 23% (0·77, 0·70–0·84) and the risk of cardiovascular death or hospitalisation for heart failure by 23% (0·77, 0·74–0·81), again with similar effects in those with and without diabetes. SGLT2 inhibitors also reduced the risk of cardiovascular death (0·86, 0·81–0·92) but did not significantly reduce the risk of non-cardiovascular death (0·94, 0·88–1·02). For these mortality outcomes, RRs were similar in patients with and without diabetes. For all outcomes, results were broadly similar irrespective of trial mean baseline eGFR. Based on estimates of absolute effects, the absolute benefits of SGLT2 inhibition outweighed any serious hazards of ketoacidosis or amputation.
In addition to the established cardiovascular benefits of SGLT2 inhibitors, the randomised data support their use for modifying risk of kidney disease progression and acute kidney injury, not only in patients with type 2 diabetes at high cardiovascular risk, but also in patients with chronic kidney disease or heart failure irrespective of diabetes status, primary kidney disease, or kidney function.
UK Medical Research Council and Kidney Research UK.
Journal Article
Blood pressure-lowering treatment strategies based on cardiovascular risk versus blood pressure: A meta-analysis of individual participant data
by
Neal, Bruce C.
,
Woodward, Mark
,
Rahimi, Kazem
in
Aged
,
Analysis
,
Antihypertensive Agents - pharmacology
2018
Clinical practice guidelines have traditionally recommended blood pressure treatment based primarily on blood pressure thresholds. In contrast, using predicted cardiovascular risk has been advocated as a more effective strategy to guide treatment decisions for cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention. We aimed to compare outcomes from a blood pressure-lowering treatment strategy based on predicted cardiovascular risk with one based on systolic blood pressure (SBP) level.
We used individual participant data from the Blood Pressure Lowering Treatment Trialists' Collaboration (BPLTTC) from 1995 to 2013. Trials randomly assigned participants to either blood pressure-lowering drugs versus placebo or more intensive versus less intensive blood pressure-lowering regimens. We estimated 5-y risk of CVD events using a multivariable Weibull model previously developed in this dataset. We compared the two strategies at specific SBP thresholds and across the spectrum of risk and blood pressure levels studied in BPLTTC trials. The primary outcome was number of CVD events avoided per persons treated. We included data from 11 trials (47,872 participants). During a median of 4.0 y of follow-up, 3,566 participants (7.5%) experienced a major cardiovascular event. Areas under the curve comparing the two treatment strategies throughout the range of possible thresholds for CVD risk and SBP demonstrated that, on average, a greater number of CVD events would be avoided for a given number of persons treated with the CVD risk strategy compared with the SBP strategy (area under the curve 0.71 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.70-0.72] for the CVD risk strategy versus 0.54 [95% CI 0.53-0.55] for the SBP strategy). Compared with treating everyone with SBP ≥ 150 mmHg, a CVD risk strategy would require treatment of 29% (95% CI 26%-31%) fewer persons to prevent the same number of events or would prevent 16% (95% CI 14%-18%) more events for the same number of persons treated. Compared with treating everyone with SBP ≥ 140 mmHg, a CVD risk strategy would require treatment of 3.8% (95% CI 12.5% fewer to 7.2% more) fewer persons to prevent the same number of events or would prevent 3.1% (95% CI 1.5%-5.0%) more events for the same number of persons treated, although the former estimate was not statistically significant. In subgroup analyses, the CVD risk strategy did not appear to be more beneficial than the SBP strategy in patients with diabetes mellitus or established CVD.
A blood pressure-lowering treatment strategy based on predicted cardiovascular risk is more effective than one based on blood pressure levels alone across a range of thresholds. These results support using cardiovascular risk assessment to guide blood pressure treatment decision-making in moderate- to high-risk individuals, particularly for primary prevention.
Journal Article
CPAP for Prevention of Cardiovascular Events in Obstructive Sleep Apnea
2016
In a randomized trial, over 2700 patients with obstructive sleep apnea and cardiovascular disease were assigned to CPAP plus usual care or to usual care alone. At a mean of 3.7 years, the rate of adverse cardiovascular events did not differ significantly between the groups.
Obstructive sleep apnea causes episodic hypoxemia and nocturnal sympathetic nervous system activation
1
and elevates blood pressure
2
and markers of oxidative stress, inflammation, and hypercoagulation.
3
,
4
Large negative intrathoracic pressure swings also impose mechanical stress on the heart and great vessels.
5
–
7
Population-based and sleep-clinic–based cohort studies have shown an association between obstructive sleep apnea and cardiovascular events,
8
–
16
particularly stroke.
17
Randomized, controlled trials have shown that treatment with continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP) lowers systolic blood pressure by 2 to 3 mm Hg in patients with normotensive obstructive sleep apnea
18
and by 6 to 7 mm Hg in patients with . . .
Journal Article
Rationale, design, and baseline characteristics of the Canagliflozin Cardiovascular Assessment Study (CANVAS)—A randomized placebo-controlled trial
2013
Sodium glucose co-transporter 2 inhibition is a novel mode of treatment for type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). The sodium glucose co-transporter 2 inhibitor canagliflozin lowered blood glucose, blood pressure, and body weight, with increased risk of urogenital infections in Phase 2 studies. Effects on macrovascular complications of diabetes remain to be determined. CANVAS is a double-blind, placebo-controlled trial designed to evaluate the effects of canagliflozin on the risk of cardiovascular disease and to assess safety and tolerability in patients with inadequately controlled T2DM and increased cardiovascular risk. The first of 2 planned phases randomized 4,330 individuals to placebo, canagliflozin 100 or 300 mg (1:1:1) with planned follow-up of about 2 years to substantiate potential cardiovascular protection by assessing key biomarkers and to achieve initial safety objectives. By the end of mid-September 2012, a total of 7174 patient-years of follow-up were accrued. Mean baseline age was 62 years, duration of diabetes 13 years; hemoglobin A1c 8.2%, fasting plasma glucose 9.3 mmol/L, and body mass index 32 kg/m2. Of the participants, 34% are female and 57% had a history of atherosclerotic vascular disease. Participants will be followed up to achieve primary safety and tolerability objectives and to investigate secondary outcomes. The planned second phase will not be undertaken. CANVAS will define the effects of canagliflozin on biomarkers and provide data on cardiovascular safety against established regulatory parameters.
Journal Article
Effects of fibrates on cardiovascular outcomes: a systematic review and meta-analysis
by
Perkovic, Vlado
,
Patel, Anushka
,
Neal, Bruce
in
Biological and medical sciences
,
Cardiovascular disease
,
Cardiovascular Diseases - complications
2010
Several clinical trials have reported inconsistent findings for the effect of fibrates on cardiovascular risk. We undertook a systematic review and meta-analysis to investigate the effects of fibrates on major clinical outcomes.
We systematically searched Medline, Embase, and the Cochrane Library for trials published between 1950 and March, 2010. We included prospective randomised controlled trials assessing the effects of fibrates on cardiovascular outcomes compared with placebo. Summary estimates of relative risk (RR) reductions were calculated with a random effects model. Outcomes analysed were major cardiovascular events, coronary events, stroke, heart failure, coronary revascularisation, all-cause mortality, cardiovascular death, non-vascular death, sudden death, new onset albuminuria, and drug-related adverse events.
We identified 18 trials providing data for 45 058 participants, including 2870 major cardiovascular events, 4552 coronary events, and 3880 deaths. Fibrate therapy produced a 10% RR reduction (95% CI 0–18) for major cardiovascular events (p=0·048) and a 13% RR reduction (7–19) for coronary events (p<0·0001), but had no benefit on stroke (−3%, −16 to 9; p=0·69). We noted no effect of fibrate therapy on the risk of all-cause mortality (0%, −8 to 7; p=0·92), cardiovascular mortality (3%, −7 to 12; p=0·59), sudden death (11%, −6 to 26; p=0·19), or non-vascular mortality (−10%, −21 to 0·5; p=0·063). Fibrates reduced the risk of albuminuria progression by 14% (2–25; p=0·028). Serious drug-related adverse events were not significantly increased by fibrates (17 413 participants, 225 events; RR 1·21, 0·91–1·61; p=0·19), although increases in serum creatinine concentrations were common (1·99, 1·46–2·70; p<0·0001).
Fibrates can reduce the risk of major cardiovascular events predominantly by prevention of coronary events, and might have a role in individuals at high risk of cardiovascular events and in those with combined dyslipidaemia.
National Health and Medical Research Council of Australia.
Journal Article
Salt Reduction Initiatives around the World – A Systematic Review of Progress towards the Global Target
2015
To quantify progress with the initiation of salt reduction strategies around the world in the context of the global target to reduce population salt intake by 30% by 2025.
A systematic review of the published and grey literature was supplemented by questionnaires sent to country program leaders. Core characteristics of strategies were extracted and categorised according to a pre-defined framework.
A total of 75 countries now have a national salt reduction strategy, more than double the number reported in a similar review done in 2010. The majority of programs are multifaceted and include industry engagement to reformulate products (n = 61), establishment of sodium content targets for foods (39), consumer education (71), front-of-pack labelling schemes (31), taxation on high-salt foods (3) and interventions in public institutions (54). Legislative action related to salt reduction such as mandatory targets, front of pack labelling, food procurement policies and taxation have been implemented in 33 countries. 12 countries have reported reductions in population salt intake, 19 reduced salt content in foods and 6 improvements in consumer knowledge, attitudes or behaviours relating to salt.
The large and increasing number of countries with salt reduction strategies in place is encouraging although activity remains limited in low- and middle-income regions. The absence of a consistent approach to implementation highlights uncertainty about the elements most important to success. Rigorous evaluation of ongoing programs and initiation of salt reduction programs, particularly in low- and middle- income countries, will be vital to achieving the targeted 30% reduction in salt intake.
Journal Article