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The current recommendation for treating Lassa fever with ribavirin is supported only by weak evidence. Given the persistent effects in areas with endemic transmission and epidemic potential, there is an urgent need to reassess ribavirin and investigate other potential therapeutic candidates; however, a robust clinical trial method adapted to Lassa fever epidemiology has not yet been established. We propose an adaptive phase II/III multicenter randomized controlled platform trial that uses a superiority framework with an equal allocation ratio and accounts for challenges selecting the primary end point and estimating the target sample size by using an interim analysis.

Lassa fever (LF) is a zoonotic disease that is widespread in West Africa and involves animal-to-human and human-to-human transmission. Animal-to-human transmission occurs upon exposure to rodent excreta and secretions, i.e. urine and saliva, and human-to-human transmission occurs via the bodily fluids of an infected person. To elucidate the seasonal drivers of LF epidemics, we employed a mathematical model to analyse the datasets of human infection, rodent population dynamics and climatological variations and capture the underlying transmission dynamics. The surveillance-based incidence data of human cases in Nigeria were explored, and moreover, a mathematical model was used for describing the transmission dynamics of LF in rodent populations. While quantifying the case fatality risk and the rate of exposure of humans to animals, we explicitly estimated the corresponding contact rate of humans with infected rodents, accounting for the seasonal population dynamics of rodents. Our findings reveal that seasonal migratory dynamics of rodents play a key role in regulating the cyclical pattern of LF epidemics. The estimated timing of high exposure of humans to animals coincides with the time shortly after the start of the dry season and can be associated with the breeding season of rodents in Nigeria. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Modelling infectious disease outbreaks in humans, animals and plants: approaches and important themes’. This issue is linked with the subsequent theme issue ‘Modelling infectious disease outbreaks in humans, animals and plants: epidemic forecasting and control’.

Lassa virus (LASV) is endemic in the rodent populations of Sierra Leone, Nigeria and other countries in West Africa. Spillover to humans occurs frequently and results in Lassa fever, a viral haemorrhagic fever (VHF) associated with a high case fatality rate. Despite advances, fundamental gaps in knowledge of the immunology, epidemiology, ecology and pathogenesis of Lassa fever persist. More frequent outbreaks, the potential for further geographic expansion of Mastomys natalensis and other rodent reservoirs, the ease of procurement and possible use and weaponization of LASV, the frequent importation of LASV to North America and Europe, and the emergence of novel LASV strains in densely populated West Africa have driven new initiatives to develop countermeasures for LASV. Although promising candidates are being evaluated, as yet there are no approved vaccines or therapeutics for human use. This Review discusses the virology of LASV, the clinical course of Lassa fever and the progress towards developing medical countermeasures.Lassa fever is a viral haemorrhagic fever that spills over from its rodent reservoir. Continued viral evolution and increasing exposure make Lassa virus a high-risk pathogen. In this Review, Garry highlights new insights into the virology, disease presentation and potential countermeasures.

Lassa fever (LF), caused by the Lassa virus and transmitted primarily by Mastomys natalensis rodents, is a severe hemorrhagic disease endemic to West Africa, particularly Nigeria, with significant morbidity and mortality rates. This study develops dynamic models for LF, incorporating crucial but often overlooked factors such as vertical transmission (i.e., transmission from parents to their offsprings) in rodents, surface contamination, and asymptomatic human carriers. The persistence of the disease is shown analytically. Using data from Nigeria to train the models, the impact of various control and mitigation measures is assessed. The results of the study reveal that asymptomatic individuals are key drivers of LF and that including additional LF virus transmission pathways, e.g., vertical transmission and environmental contamination, increases the estimated reproduction number threefold compared to previous studies. Models incorporating rodent dynamics show the highest disease prevalence, highlighting the critical role of rodent control. Specifically, effective interventions using only rodent control measures require maintaining rodent populations below a specific threshold. In addition, a multifaceted approach, combining antiviral treatment, environmental disinfection, and personal protective equipment, significantly enhances disease control, while the introduction of a competitor rodent species can drastically reduce human and rodent infections. Ultimately, the study underscores the need for integrated, multifaceted strategies, including targeting rodents, asymptomatic cases, and comprehensive treatment and disinfection protocols, for effective LF management.

The 2018 Nigerian Lassa fever season saw the largest ever recorded upsurge of cases, raising concerns over the emergence of a strain with increased transmission rate. To understand the molecular epidemiology of this upsurge, we performed, for the first time at the epicenter of an unfolding outbreak, metagenomic nanopore sequencing directly from patient samples, an approach dictated by the highly variable genome of the target pathogen. Genomic data and phylogenetic reconstructions were communicated immediately to Nigerian authorities and the World Health Organization to inform the public health response. Real-time analysis of 36 genomes and subsequent confirmation using all 120 samples sequenced in the country of origin revealed extensive diversity and phylogenetic intermingling with strains from previous years, suggesting independent zoonotic transmission events and thus allaying concerns of an emergent strain or extensive human-to-human transmission.

Two patients with Lassa fever are described who are the first human cases treated with a combination of ribavirin and favipiravir. Both patients survived but developed transaminitis and had prolonged detectable virus RNA in blood and semen, suggesting that the possibility of sexual transmission of Lassa virus should be considered.

Lassa fever (LF), caused by Lassa virus (LASV), is a viral hemorrhagic fever for which no approved vaccine or potent antiviral treatment is available. LF is a WHO priority disease and, together with rabies, a major health burden in West Africa. Here we present the development and characterization of an inactivated recombinant LASV and rabies vaccine candidate (LASSARAB) that expresses a codon-optimized LASV glycoprotein (coGPC) and is adjuvanted by a TLR-4 agonist (GLA-SE). LASSARAB elicits lasting humoral response against LASV and RABV in both mouse and guinea pig models, and it protects both guinea pigs and mice against LF. We also demonstrate a previously unexplored role for non-neutralizing LASV GPC-specific antibodies as a major mechanism of protection by LASSARAB against LF through antibody-dependent cellular functions. Overall, these findings demonstrate an effective inactivated LF vaccine and elucidate a novel humoral correlate of protection for LF. There is currently no approved vaccine for Lassa fever virus (LASV). Here, Abreu-Mota et al. develop an inactivated, adjuvanted vaccine candidate expressing LASV glycoprotein (GPC) in a rabies virus vector, and show that non-neutralizing LASV GPC-specific antibodies are a major mechanism of protection.

An increase in Lassa fever cases was identified in Nigeria this year. In this analysis of the infecting viruses, the predominant mode of transmission appeared to be multiple insertions from local rodent populations rather than sustained person-to-person spread.

The arenavirus Lassa causes severe hemorrhagic fever and a significant disease burden in West Africa every year. The glycoprotein, GPC, is the sole antigen expressed on the viral surface and the critical target for antibody-mediated neutralization. Here we present the crystal structure of the trimeric, prefusion ectodomain of Lassa GP bound to a neutralizing antibody from a human survivor at 3.2-angstrom resolution. The antibody extensively anchors two monomers together at the base of the trimer, and biochemical analysis suggests that it neutralizes by inhibiting conformational changes required for entry. This work illuminates pH-driven conformational changes in both receptor-binding and fusion subunits of Lassa virus, illustrates the unique assembly of the arenavirus glycoprotein spike, and provides a much-needed template for vaccine design against these threats to global health.

Viral hemorrhagic Lassa fever (LF), caused by Lassa virus (LASV), is a significant public health concern endemic in West Africa with high morbidity and mortality rates, limited treatment options, and potential for international spread. Despite advances in interrogating its epidemiology and clinical manifestations, the molecular mechanisms driving pathogenesis of LASV and other arenaviruses remain incompletely understood. This review synthesizes current knowledge regarding the role of LASV host-virus interactions in mediating the pathogenesis of LF, with emphasis on interactions between viral and host proteins. Through investigation of these critical protein–protein interactions, we identify potential therapeutic targets and discuss their implications for development of medical countermeasures including antiviral drugs. This review provides an update in recent literature of significant LASV host-virus interactions important in informing the development of targeted therapies and improving clinical outcomes for LF patients. Knowledge gaps are highlighted as opportunities for future research efforts that would advance the field of LASV and arenavirus pathogenesis.