Journal Article

A Spatially Explicit Estimate of Avoided Forest Loss

RAMÍREZ, M. ISABEL, HONEY-ROSÉS, JORDI, BAYLIS, KATHY

2011

Overview

With the potential expansion of forest conservation programs spurred by climate-change agreements, there is a need to measure the extent to which such programs achieve their intended results. Conventional methods for evaluating conservation impact tend to be biased because they do not compare like areas or account for spatial relations. We assessed the effect of a conservation initiative that combined designation of protected areas with payments for environmental services to conserve over wintering habitat for the monarch butterfly (Danaus plexippus) in Mexico. To do so, we used a spatial-matching estimator that matches covariates among polygons and their neighbors. We measured avoided forest loss (avoided disturbance and deforestation) by comparing forest cover on protected and unprotected lands that were similar in terms of accessibility, governance, and forest type. Whereas conventional estimates of avoided forest loss suggest that conservation initiatives did not protect forest cover, we found evidence that the conservation measures are preserving forest cover. We found that the conservation measures protected between 200 ha and 710 ha (3-16%) of forest that is high-quality habitat for monarch butterflies, but had a smaller effect on total forest cover, preserving between 0 ha and 200 ha (0-2.5%) of forest with canopy cover > 70%. We suggest that future estimates of avoided forest loss be analyzed spatially to account for how forest loss occurs across the landscape.Given the forthcoming demand from donors and carbon financiers for estimates of avoided forest loss, we anticipate our methods and results will contribute to future studies that estimate the outcome of conservation efforts. Con la expansión potencial de programas de conservación de bosques estimulados por los acuerdos de cambio climático, es necesario medir el alcance de los resultados de tales programas. Los métodos convencionales para evaluar el impacto de la conservación tienden a ser sesgados porque no comparan áreas similares ni consideran relaciones espaciales. Evaluamos el efecto de una iniciativa de conservacion que combinó la designación de áreas protegidas con pagos por servicios ambientales para conservar el hábitat invernal de la mariposa monarca (Danaus plexippus) en México. Para ello, utilizamos un estimador espacial que combina covariables entre polígonos y sus vecinos. Medimos la pérdida de bosque evitada (perturbatión y deforestatión evitadas) mediante la comparatión de cobertura forestal en tierras protegidas y no protegidas que eran similares en términos de accesibilidad, gobernabilidad y tipo de bosque. Mientras las estimaciones convencionales de pérdida de bosque evitada sugieren que las iniciativas de conservatión no protegieron la cobertura forestal, encontramos evidencia de que las medidas de conservatión están preservando la cobertura forestal. Encontramos que las medidas de conservatión protegieron entre 200 y 710 ha (3-16%)de bosque que es hábitat de alta calidad para las mariposas monarca, pero tuvieron menos efecto sobre la cobertura forestal total, preservando entre 0 y 200 ha (0-2-5%) de bosque con cobertura de dosel > 70%.Sugerimos que estimaciones futuras de la pérdida de bosque evitada deben ser analizadas espacialmente para explicar como ocurre la pérdida de bosques en el paisaje. Dada la futura demanda de estimaciones de pérdida de bosque evitada por parte de donantes y financiadores de proyectos de carbono, anticipamos que nuestros métodos y resultados contribuirán a futuros estudios que estimen el resultado de esfuerzos de conservación.

• Publisher: Blackwell Publishing Inc,Wiley-Blackwell
• Subject: Animal, plant and microbial ecology / Animals / análisis espacial / Applied ecology / avoided deforestation / Biological and medical sciences / Butterflies - physiology / carbon / conservation areas / Conservation biology / Conservation of Natural Resources - methods / Conservation of Natural Resources - statistics & numerical data / Conservation programs / Conservation, protection and management of environment and wildlife / Danaus plexippus / deforestación evitada / Deforestation / Demography / ecosystem services / estimadores pareados / Forest canopy / Forest conservation / Forest cover / Forest habitats / forest types / Forestry / Fundamental and applied biological sciences. Psychology / General forest ecology / Generalities. Production, biomass. Quality of wood and forest products. General forest ecology / Geographic Information Systems / governance / Habitat conservation / habitats / hábitat de mariposa monarca / matching estimators / Mexico / Models, Biological / monarch butterfly habitat / México / pago de servicios ambientales / Parks, reserves, wildlife conservation. Endangered species: population survey and restocking / payment for environmental services / Polygons / Protected areas / REDD / spatial analysis / Trees