Journal Article

Crimes of Opportunity or Crimes of Emotion? Testing Two Explanations of Seasonal Change in Crime

Bollen, Kenneth A., Curran, Patrick J., Hipp, John R., Bauer, Daniel J.

2004

Overview

While past research has suggested possible seasonal trends in crime rates, this study employs a novel methodology that directly models these changes and predicts them with explanatory variables. Using a nonlinear latent curve model, seasonal fluctuations in crime rates are modeled for a large number of communities in the U.S. over a three-year period with a focus on testing the theoretical predictions of two key explanations for seasonal changes in crime rates: the temperature/aggression and routine activities theories. Using data from 8,460 police units in the U.S. over the 1990 to 1992 period, we found that property crime rates are primarily driven by pleasant weather, consistent with the routine activities theory. Violent crime exhibited evidence in support of both theories.

• Publisher: The University of North Carolina Press,University of North Carolina Press,Oxford University Press
• Subject: Aggression / Behavior Patterns / Causes of / Climate / Climate models / Communities / Crime / Crime patterns / Crime rate / Crime Rates / Criminal sociology. Police. Delinquency. Deviance. Suicide / Criminal statistics / Criminology / Data analysis / Emotions / Explanations / Human ecology / Human ecology and demography / Influence / Mathematical models / Modeling / Offenses / Police / Police units / Property / Property crimes / Property offences / Routine activities / Sampson, Robert J / Seasonal Variations / Seasons / Social aspects / Sociological Theory / Sociology / Sociology of law and criminology / Temperature / United States / United States of America / Units of Study / USA / Violent crime / Violent crimes / Weather