Journal Article

A hybrid grid-GA-based LSSVR learning paradigm for crude oil price forecasting

Wu, Jiaqian, Yu, Lean, Tang, Ling, Dai, Wei

2016

Overview

In order to effectively model crude oil spot price with inherently high complexity, a hybrid learning paradigm integrating least squares support vector regression (LSSVR) with a hybrid optimization searching approach for the parameters selection in the LSSVR [consisting of grid method and genetic algorithm (GA)], i.e., a hybrid grid-GA-based LSSVR model, is proposed in this study. In the proposed hybrid learning paradigm, the grid method, a simple but efficient searching method, is first applied to roughly but rapidly determine the proper boundaries of the parameters in the LSSVR; then, the GA, an effective and powerful intelligent searching algorithm, is further implemented to select the most suitable parameters. For illustration and verification, the proposed learning paradigm is used to predict the crude oil spot prices of the West Texas Intermediate and the Brent markets. The empirical results demonstrate that the proposed hybrid grid-GA-based LSSVR learning paradigm can outperform its benchmarking models (including some popular forecasting techniques and similar LSSVRs with other parameter searching algorithms) in terms of both prediction accuracy and time-savings, indicating that it can be utilized as one effective forecasting tool for crude oil price with high volatility and irregularity.

• Publisher: Springer London,Springer Nature B.V
• Subject: Artificial Intelligence / Computational Biology/Bioinformatics / Computational Science and Engineering / Computer Science / Crude oil / Crude oil prices / Data Mining and Knowledge Discovery / Forecasting / Forecasting techniques / Genetic algorithms / Grid method / Image Processing and Computer Vision / Learning / Parameters / Predictive Analytics Using Machine Learning / Probability and Statistics in Computer Science / Search algorithms / Search methods / Support vector machines