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Challenges and Opportunities in Numerical Weather Prediction

by Brotzge, Jerald A. , Haupt, Sue Ellen , Berchoff, Don , Carlis, DaNa L. , Wang, Xuguang , Hamill, Thomas M. , McGovern, Amy , Gerth, Jordan J. , Carr, Rachel Hogan , Gross, Brian D. , Jacobs, Neil , Szunyogh, Istvan , Stensrud, David J. , Szatkowski, Gary , Carr, Frederick H.

in Accuracy / Artificial intelligence / Atmospheric boundary layer / Atmospheric chemistry / Atmospheric composition / Atmospheric diffusion / Atmospheric dispersion / Atmospheric models / Community involvement / Community participation / Data assimilation / Data collection / Global weather / Government agencies / Hurricanes / Hydrology / Internet of Things / Machine learning / Meeting Summary / Meteorological satellites / Numerical prediction / Numerical weather forecasting / Polar orbiting satellites / Pollution dispersion / Predictions / R&D / Research & development / Satellite constellations / Satellite data / Satellites / Space weather / Weather / Weather forecasting

2023

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2023

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2023

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Journal Article

Challenges and Opportunities in Numerical Weather Prediction

Brotzge, Jerald A.,

Haupt, Sue Ellen,

Berchoff, Don,

Carlis, DaNa L.,

Wang, Xuguang,

Hamill, Thomas M.,

McGovern, Amy,

Gerth, Jordan J.,

Carr, Rachel Hogan,

Gross, Brian D.,

Jacobs, Neil,

Szunyogh, Istvan,

Stensrud, David J.,

Szatkowski, Gary,

Carr, Frederick H.

2023

Overview

NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Production Suite (NPS) currently includes over 20 operational weather forecast systems, providing forecasts from the mesoscale to global seasonal outlooks. In an effort to optimize resources, the NPS is being simplified to far fewer systems within the Unified Forecast System (UFS) framework that nevertheless span NOAA’s weather prediction mission: short-range regional and atmospheric composition (RRFS, WoF), medium-range subseasonal (GEFS) to seasonal (SFS), marine and coastal (GFS, GEFS, NWPS, GLWU), hurricanes (HAFS), on-demand atmospheric dispersion (HySPLIT), hydrology (NWM), and space weather (WAM/IPE) (see appendix for a full list of abbreviation definitions). An international constellation of low-Earth-orbit and geosynchronous-equatorial-orbit satellites are expanding our Earth intelligence; for example, polar-orbiting satellites now provide 85% of the data used in global weather models. In addition to the advancement of DA research, the Joint Effort for Data assimilation Integration (JEDI), operated by the UCAR Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation (JCSDA), provides a common software infrastructure for full community engagement in the testing, research, and development of new observations and DA methods.

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Publisher

American Meteorological Society

Subject

Accuracy

/ Artificial intelligence

/ Atmospheric boundary layer

/ Atmospheric chemistry

/ Atmospheric composition

/ Atmospheric diffusion

/ Atmospheric dispersion