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Atmospheric Blocks Increase the Odds of Extreme Wildfire Danger at High Latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere
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Atmospheric Blocks Increase the Odds of Extreme Wildfire Danger at High Latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere
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Journal Article
Atmospheric Blocks Increase the Odds of Extreme Wildfire Danger at High Latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere
2025
Overview
Recent years have seen severe wildfires in the Northern Hemisphere. This study statistically links atmospheric blocks to extreme fire weather (FDP99 ${\\text{FD}}_{\\mathit{P99}}$) and observed fires (OF) across seasons from 1979 to 2020. Based on co‐location and odds ratio statistics, we find that a substantial part of FDP99 ${\\text{FD}}_{\\mathit{P99}}$ co‐occurs with blocks. In areas where blocks occur regularly, blocks increase the odds of FDP99 ${\\text{FD}}_{\\mathit{P99}}$ by a factor of 4–5, with up to a 30‐fold increase locally. The link between blocks and FDP99 ${\\text{FD}}_{\\mathit{P99}}$ is stronger at latitudes north of 50° ^{\\circ}$N, but exhibits regional and seasonal variations. We also find a significant link between blocks and OF in the Arctic regions during summer. This study reveals new links between atmospheric blocks and wildfire danger.
Publisher
John Wiley & Sons, Inc
Subject
