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Combined mechanistic modelling predicts changes in species distribution and increased co-occurrence of a tropical urchin herbivore and a habitat-forming temperate kelp
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Combined mechanistic modelling predicts changes in species distribution and increased co-occurrence of a tropical urchin herbivore and a habitat-forming temperate kelp
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Combined mechanistic modelling predicts changes in species distribution and increased co-occurrence of a tropical urchin herbivore and a habitat-forming temperate kelp
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Journal Article
Combined mechanistic modelling predicts changes in species distribution and increased co-occurrence of a tropical urchin herbivore and a habitat-forming temperate kelp
2020
Overview
Aim Identify climate change impacts on spawning and settlement of a tropical herbivore (Tripneustes), optimal habitat of a temperate kelp (Ecklonia) and implications for these species regions of interaction under future climate. Location Along eastern Australia and into the Tasman Sea including Lord Howe Island (LHI). Time period A contemporary scenario (2006–2015) and future “business as usual” RCP 8.5 climate change scenario (2090–2100). Major taxa studied The tropical sea urchin, Tripneustes gratilla, and the temperate kelp, Ecklonia radiata. Methods We combined mechanistic models to create a predictive map of Ecklonia and Tripneustes distributions, and their future potential to co‐occur. We use 3D velocity and temperature fields produced with a state‐of‐the‐art configuration of the Ocean Forecasting Model version 3 that simulates the contemporary oceanic environment and projects it under an RCP 8.5 climate change scenario. We map the contemporary and future Ecklonia's realized and fundamental thermal niche; and simulate Tripneustes larval dispersal under both climate scenarios. Results Based on the thermal affinity of kelp and increases in projected temperatures, we predict a poleward range contraction of ~530 km by 2100 for kelp on Australia's east coast. Climate‐driven changes in dispersal of Tripneustes lead to its range expansion into Bass Strait and poleward, ~340–650 km further into Ecklonia's habitat range inducing new areas of co‐occurrence in the future. We find warming decreases spawning and settlement of Tripneustes in the tropics by 43%, and causes significant connectivity changes for LHI with future reliance on self‐recruitment. Major conclusions We predict novel regions of co‐occurrence between a temperate Ecklonia and tropical Tripneustes species which may lead to greater loss of kelp. Our results provide a new modelling approach for predicting species range shifts that is transferable to other marine ecosystems; it considers species response to abiotic change, predicts spatial spread and anticipates new regions for species interactions.
