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Links Between Internal Variability and Forced Climate Feedbacks: The Importance of Patterns of Temperature Variability and Change
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Links Between Internal Variability and Forced Climate Feedbacks: The Importance of Patterns of Temperature Variability and Change
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Journal Article
Links Between Internal Variability and Forced Climate Feedbacks: The Importance of Patterns of Temperature Variability and Change
2024
Overview
Understanding the relationships between internal variability and forced climate feedbacks is key for using observations to constrain future climate change. Here we probe and interpret the differences in these relationships between the climate change projections provided by the CMIP5 and CMIP6 experiment ensembles. We find that internal variability feedbacks better predict forced feedbacks in CMIP6 relative to CMIP5 by over 50%, and that the increased predictability derives primarily from the slow (>20 years) response to climate change. A key novel result is that the increased predictability is consistent with the higher resemblance between the patterns of internal and forced temperature changes in CMIP6, which suggests temperature pattern effects play a key role in predicting forced climate feedbacks. Despite the increased predictability, emergent constraints provided by observed internal variability are weak and largely unchanged from CMIP5 to CMIP6 due to the shortness of the observational record. Plain Language Summary A key goal in climate change research is to use observed, internal climate feedbacks to constrain the forced feedbacks that govern climate change. Here the authors explore the differences in the relationships between internal and forced climate feedbacks in simulations run under the auspices of the two recent IPCC reports: The CMIP5 and CMIP6 simulations. They find notable increases in the relationships between internal and forced feedbacks between CMIP5 and CMIP6, and attribute these increases at least partially to the patterns of temperature variability associated with internal climate variability and forced climate change. However, they argue that the increases do not lead to improvements in our ability to constrain future climate change based on observations due to the uncertainty in the observed, internal climate feedbacks. Key Points Internal variability feedbacks better predict forced feedbacks in CMIP6 relative to CMIP5 by over 50% The improved prediction derives in part from the greater similarity between the patterns of internal and forced temperature changes in CMIP6 The improved prediction does not significantly improve the emergent constraint associated with internal variability feedbacks
Publisher
John Wiley & Sons, Inc,Wiley
