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Increasing Precipitation Efficiency Amplifies Climate Sensitivity by Enhancing Tropical Circulation Slowdown and Eastern Pacific Warming Pattern
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Increasing Precipitation Efficiency Amplifies Climate Sensitivity by Enhancing Tropical Circulation Slowdown and Eastern Pacific Warming Pattern
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Increasing Precipitation Efficiency Amplifies Climate Sensitivity by Enhancing Tropical Circulation Slowdown and Eastern Pacific Warming Pattern
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Journal Article
Increasing Precipitation Efficiency Amplifies Climate Sensitivity by Enhancing Tropical Circulation Slowdown and Eastern Pacific Warming Pattern
2023
Overview
The role of precipitation efficiency (PE)—the fraction of column‐integrated condensate that reaches the surface as rain—in the global temperature response to CO2 rise is yet to be quantified. Here we employ 36 limited‐domain cloud resolving models (CRMs) from the Radiative‐Convective Equilibrium Model Intercomparison Project and find that they strongly imply higher PE at warmer temperatures. We then analyze 35 general circulation models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 and find that increasing PE is associated with tropical circulation slowdown and greater eastern equatorial Pacific warming. These changes trigger pan‐tropical positive cloud feedback through stratiform anvil cloud reduction and stratocumulus suppression, resulting in higher Effective Climate Sensitivity (ECS). We find that in 24 of 35 GCMs matching the CRMs in simulating increasing PE with greenhouse warming, mean ECS is 1 K higher than in PE‐decreasing GCMs. Thus, further constraining PE sensitivity to temperature could reduce uncertainty over future climate projections. Plain Language Summary Precipitation efficiency (PE) is the ratio of precipitation to cloud condensate. Evidence from the great majority of cloud‐resolving models and many earth system models support higher PE with warming. With higher PE, more cloud condensate leaves the atmosphere as precipitation, reducing cloud cover and optical thickness. As PE is tightly linked to the latent heat release of tropical convection, an atmosphere with high PE and a weak circulation can release the same latent heat as its counterpart with low PE and strong circulation. Increasing PE is robustly correlated with pan‐tropical positive cloud feedback in the equatorial Pacific, namely thinner stratiform anvil clouds in the west and suppressed stratocumulus cloud cover in the east. Hence, quantifying PE change is critical for climate projections. Key Points Cloud‐resolving models indicate increasing precipitation efficiency with global warming High precipitation efficiency implies a weak Walker circulation, eastern tropical Pacific warming, and positive tropical cloud feedback All 4 K or higher climate sensitivity climate models project increasing precipitation efficiency
