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Changes in Flood Magnitude and Frequency Projected for Vulnerable Regions and Major Wetlands of South America
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Changes in Flood Magnitude and Frequency Projected for Vulnerable Regions and Major Wetlands of South America
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Journal Article
Changes in Flood Magnitude and Frequency Projected for Vulnerable Regions and Major Wetlands of South America
2025
Overview
The increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration elevates atmospheric temperature and enhances water storage capacity. This could lead to more extreme precipitation events, while simultaneously, higher temperatures may cause land and soil to dry out. Such alterations create ambiguous expectations regarding the direction of hydrological changes in the following decades. This work quantifies streamflow changes on flood discharges in South America based on the MGB‐SA hydrodynamic‐hydrological model forced with the Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) ensemble of climate projections. Future projections indicate that floods are expected to increase in magnitude and become up to five times more frequent in Southern Brazil, a region recently impacted by unprecedented flooding. In contrast, ecosystems such as the Amazon and the Pantanal will likely experience less frequent floods in the coming decades. These projections have relevant implications not only for flood risk in populated areas but also for ecological dynamics. Plain Language Summary Global warming is a phenomenon that is increasing the planet's temperature. This increase leads to more water retained in the atmosphere, potentially increasing precipitation. However, the temperature rise might also increase the evapotranspiration of water in the soil. All these alterations in the water cycle affect river flows and floods. In this work, we quantified the alterations for South America's large rivers using climate projections from CMIP6 and the hydrological model MGB‐SA. Rainfall projections show an increase of 20% in 5 years return period (RP) rainfall and up to 60 % in 100 years RP rainfall. In the following decades, floods might be up to five times more frequent in Southern Brazil, a region recently affected by unprecedented floods. In contrast, the Amazon and Pantanal basins show projections of less frequent floods, which might negatively affect its ecosystem. Key Points CMIP6 projects a rise in maximum daily rainfall across most of South America, though flood flows will not uniformly increase Projections show flood intensification over Southern Brazil, a region recently affected by disastrous floods Amazon, Pantanal, and Bananal wetlands may have decreased flood events, negatively impacting ecosystems
