Journal Article

Predicting Potential Range Shifts and Molecular Approaches in Four Diolcogaster Ashmead Species (Hymenoptera: Braconidae, Microgastrinae)

Butcher, Buntika A., Arias‐Penna, Diana Carolina, Moeinadini, Asma, Madjdzadeh, Seyed Massoud, Ghafouri Moghaddam, Mostafa, Heidari Latibari, Minoo

2025

Overview

Diolcogaster Ashmead is a genus of Microgastrinae (Hymenoptera: Braconidae) wasps with patchy distribution ranges. This study assessed and predicted the geographical distribution of four Diolcogaster species worldwide using field data and species distribution models (SDMs). The models projected the contemporary and future distributional ranges for the twenty‐first century. Nine informative environmental variables were employed to model the ecological niche with the MaxEnt model. Furthermore, a maximum likelihood phylogenetic estimation tree was reconstructed using IQ‐TREE, with the underlying data being COI‐based. Finally, PopART was used to perform a haplotype network analysis to assess the haplotype diversity and evolutionary distances of the four Diolcogaster species. The MaxEnt models showed excellent predictive performance (AUC > 0.9, TSS > 0.8) for all species. Diolcogaster claritibia occupied the widest and most suitable niches globally, followed by D. mayae, D. alvearia, and D. spreta. Molecular analyses supported the predicted models, indicating that D. claritibia's adaptation to various habitats. Two environmental variables significantly influenced the distribution patterns of the four species. Diolcogaster claritibia and D. mayae are ecologically versatile, adapting to diverse habitats, elevations, and environmental conditions. Thus, their distribution ranges may extend beyond the previously documented limits. The four Diolcogaster species are currently predominantly found in temperate regions, preferring cooler climates. The model predicts that these species will expand into subtropical regions. This study offers a foundational theoretical framework for the practical rearing and strategic use of the wasps, as all Microgastrinae members are important biocontrol agents of caterpillar larvae. We modeled the global distributions of four Diolcogaster wasp species using MaxEnt and evaluated their ecological niches, phylogenetic relationships, and haplotype diversity. All species showed strong model performance, with D. claritibia exhibiting the broadest and most suitable habitats. Environmental variables strongly shaped species ranges, revealing that D. claritibia and D. mayae are highly adaptable across diverse climates and elevations. Although currently concentrated in temperate zones, all four species are predicted to expand into subtropical regions under future climate scenarios. These findings highlight the ecological flexibility and biocontrol potential of Diolcogaster wasps and provide an integrated ecological and evolutionary framework that supports their strategic rearing and targeted use in pest management.

• Publisher: John Wiley & Sons, Inc,Wiley
• Subject: bioclimatic variables / Biodiversity / Biological control / Braconidae / Climate change / Climate prediction / Distribution patterns / ecological differentiation / Ecological niches / Ecology / Environmental conditions / Generalized linear models / Geographical distribution / habitat suitability prediction / Haplotypes / Hymenoptera / Insects / Maximum likelihood estimation / Microgastrinae / Network analysis / Niches / Precipitation / spatial distribution / Species / Temperature