Journal Article

iDMaTraj: Improved Diffusion Mamba Model for Stochastic Pedestrian Trajectory Prediction

Ren, Zhengwei, Fu, Feiran, Deng, Lijin, Gu, Yuejianan, Wang, Yin, Feng, Junlong, Fang, Ming

2026

Overview

Trajectory prediction constitutes a key technology for intelligent systems to forecast future movements of dynamic agents, yet it faces significant challenges due to the uncertainty of motion behavior. We propose iDMa, a stochastic trajectory prediction framework that pioneers the integration of diffusion model with Mamba architecture to achieve high-precision and high-efficiency trajectory generation. Our approach introduces two key innovations: (1) a dual-parameter learning mechanism that optimizes noise estimation of mean and variance space, unlike conventional diffusion methods that employ fixed variance during the denoising process, so as to constrain the feasible domain more accurately; (2) a hybrid denoising backbone network that incorporates Transformer encoders and Mamba blocks. Compared to existing state-of-the-art methods, iDMa reduces the average displacement error (ADE) by 4.76% (0.20 vs. 0.21) on the ETH-UCY dataset and 1.85% (7.95 vs. 8.10) on the SDD dataset.

• Publisher: MDPI AG
• Subject: Accuracy / Analysis / Artificial intelligence / Comparative analysis / Datasets / Diffusion models / Forecasts and trends / Identification and classification / Innovations / Location / Machine learning / Mamba / Markov analysis / Methods / Neural networks / Noise reduction / Pedestrians / Social interaction / stochastic trajectory prediction / Time series / Variance