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A case study of deviant El Niño influence on the 2023 monsoon: An anecdote involving IOD, MJO and equivalent barotropic rossby waves
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A case study of deviant El Niño influence on the 2023 monsoon: An anecdote involving IOD, MJO and equivalent barotropic rossby waves
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Journal Article
A case study of deviant El Niño influence on the 2023 monsoon: An anecdote involving IOD, MJO and equivalent barotropic rossby waves
2024
Overview
Historically, El Niño events have consistently signalled below-average monsoon rainfall in India excluding years like 1997. Despite 2023 being an El Niño year, India experienced normal monsoon seasonal rainfall (-6% of the Long Period Average: LPA) with above-average rainfall (+ 13% of LPA) during July and September but unadorned deficit rainfall in August (-36% of LPA). Thus, the complex relationship of El Niño with the Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) is apparently evident during summer 2023. Monthly rainfall variations starkly challenge conventional hypotheses, necessity for a profound understanding of the dynamics behind them. During June 2023, El Niño triggered a robust midlatitude upper-level Rossby wave over the north central Pacific. The propagation of wave energy along the westerly jet is further evidenced by wave activity flux. Specifically in August, this waveguide induced upper-level cyclonic circulation cantered around north China with strong northerly wind anomalies in its western flank supports the low-level cyclonic circulation with a southward tilt to the south of Japan in response to the equivalent Barotropic structure. This coupling intensified the anomalous cyclonic circulation over the WNP, bolstered by potent El Niño influence and the phase of the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO). These anomalies facilitated moisture transfer from the monsoon region to the WNP, as a result excess (deficit) rainfall is evident over the WNP (ISMR) region due to strong large-scale ascending (descending) in August 2023. During July and September, in contrast, the absence of a midlatitude Rossby wave, the prevailing positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and MJO offset this El Niño induced rainfall deficiency. El Niño impact on monsoon rainfall is significant, however, this observational study highlights the pivotal roles of IOD, MJO, and midlatitude circulation patterns. Their interplay creates substantial rainfall variability, emphasizing the complexity of El Niño-monsoon teleconnections.
